Bitwise investment strategist Matt Hougan argues that a $1 million Bitcoin price depends less on comparing today’s market cap in isolation and more on how much of the global store-of-value market Bitcoin can capture over time. In his framework, if that market grows to $121 trillion over the next decade, Bitcoin would need roughly a 17% share to justify that price.
Hougan frames Bitcoin against the store-of-value market
His analysis places Bitcoin alongside assets used to preserve wealth, including gold, real estate, and other traditional stores of value. Based on the data he cited, the global store-of-value market is currently worth about $38 trillion. Hougan contrasts that with the early 2000s, when the pool was much smaller. In 2004, for example, the gold market was valued near $2.5 trillion, and institutional participation increased after the launch of the first U.S. gold ETF that same year.
Gold alone is now close to $40 trillion. That historical expansion is central to his case. Hougan says the store-of-value category itself can keep growing if forces such as rising government borrowing, ongoing monetary easing, and geopolitical instability remain in place. Under that scenario, the broader market could reach $121 trillion within ten years, leaving more room for alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s current share is about 4%
At present, Bitcoin accounts for about 4% of the store-of-value market, with a total market capitalization of roughly $1.4 trillion. Hougan’s point is that many valuation models understate Bitcoin’s upside because they treat the opportunity set as fixed. His focus is not on short-term price action. It is on how much of a growing wealth-preservation market Bitcoin may eventually absorb.
That distinction matters for the $1 million target. The calculation does not assume a static backdrop where Bitcoin simply rises against today’s market size. It combines current capitalization with the possibility that the overall store-of-value pool becomes much larger over time.
Institutional access and allocations support the thesis
The memo also highlights institutional adoption as a major driver behind Bitcoin’s growing role as a store-of-value asset. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have ranked among the fastest-growing exchange-traded funds, giving large investors a regulated way to gain exposure. That access has improved Bitcoin’s standing inside traditional finance and has drawn in larger pools of capital.
Hougan also points to allocations from endowments and sovereign funds, including Harvard University’s investment arm and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, into Bitcoin-related investment vehicles. At the same time, professional investors now view Bitcoin as suitable for allocations of up to 5% of a portfolio, up from earlier guidance around 1%. In his view, rising ETF participation and lower long-term volatility strengthen the case for Bitcoin to keep gaining share in the store-of-value market.