The Middle East crisis escalated sharply after February 28, when the US and Israel launched a massive military campaign against Iran, targeting its leadership, nuclear facilities, and air defenses. Hundreds to thousands were killed, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones, striking Israel and US bases. Oil prices surged and global stock markets wobbled. President Trump demanded Iran's unconditional surrender, warning the campaign could last months.
Taleb Calls the Analysis 'Most Insightful'
China's silence drew intense curiosity. On March 6, Nassim Nicholas Taleb—author of The Black Swan—shared a post on X by user Mehdi, calling it the most insightful commentary on the war. The article dissects why Beijing remained silent as its key energy partner Iran was bombed.
Mehdi's Core Argument: US Self-Destructs, China Waits
Mehdi argues that China's quiet is not weakness but a long-term play. The US dragged the entire Middle East into war for Israel, prompting Gulf states to consider dropping US contracts and investment commitments—undermining the petrodollar system that has backed the greenback since 1974. Meanwhile, China's Belt and Road Initiative has linked 150 countries into its infrastructure network: ports, railways, fiber optics, power grids. Saudi Arabia started selling oil to China in yuan in 2023; BRICS expanded to include Saudi, UAE, and Iran; China's CIPS system offers a non-dollar alternative to SWIFT. In Africa, China spent two decades building railways, dams, and hospitals—without firing a single bullet or staging a coup—securing influence through concrete and contracts.
Silence as a Strategy
Mehdi notes that every US war in the Middle East costs trillions, destabilizes energy markets, and pushes global south nations toward Beijing's system. China's silence follows Napoleon's advice: 'Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.' Xi Jinping turned this into a 50-year doctrine, and the payoff is arriving faster than expected. All Beijing needs to do is keep building and stay quiet, inheriting the alliances Washington burns.
In parallel, cryptocurrency markets saw Bitcoin briefly top $73,000 and Ethereum hit $2,100 as traders weighed geopolitical risks.