Bitcoin has long been the amplifier of risk appetite, surging ahead of equities during rallies. But Bloomberg Intelligence chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone now warns that amplifier may be working in reverse. In a recent note, he argued that Bitcoin, which once "led risk assets higher," could now "lead them lower."
McGlone's view is based on a chart overlaying Bitcoin against the S&P 500 on the same scale (BTC magnified 10x). It suggests that overall beta assets in 2026—high-risk instruments that move with the market—are likely headed for a downturn.
Historical Pattern: S&P 500 Declines Coincide With Bitcoin Bear Markets
McGlone pointed out that since 2009, the S&P 500's annual total return only fell in 2018 and 2022. Both years coincided with Bitcoin bear markets and U.S. midterm election cycles. With 2026 being another midterm year, McGlone believes structural pressures are adding up this time.
First, inflation has returned as a core political issue. Second, equity volatility remains low on the surface, yet risk indicators for commodities like gold and crude oil are climbing. The combination of low-volatility stocks and high-risk commodities is historically rare, McGlone noted.
Bitcoin and Gold Both Down ~50% From 2025 Peaks
He added that both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of mean reversion in 2026—prices reverting to long-term averages. Bitcoin has retreated about 50% from its 2025 high near $126,000, while gold has seen a similar pullback. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury total return index may be bottoming out from levels not seen since 1983.
Key Signal Still Missing
McGlone acknowledged that a crucial confirmation signal is yet to flash: the ratio of the S&P 500 to U.S. GDP (similar to the Buffett indicator) remains near its highest since 1928. Once that ratio starts to decline, he said, it could mark the beginning of a broader structural adjustment in risk assets.
This is not investment advice.