Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have updated their outlook for U.S. spot cryptocurrency ETF approvals in 2025, placing Solana (SOL) at 90% odds of approval. Litecoin (LTC) and digital asset index basket ETFs were given the same 90% probability, while XRP followed at 85%, making these products the leading candidates in the next phase of the U.S. crypto ETF market.
A broader ETF pipeline is taking shape
The analysts’ chart also assigned meaningful approval odds to several other crypto assets. Dogecoin (DOGE), Polkadot (DOT), Cardano (ADA), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX) were all placed in the 75% to 80% range. The updated forecast suggests that, after the establishment of spot bitcoin and spot ethereum ETF markets, investors are increasingly focused on which altcoin-linked products could be next to receive regulatory clearance.
One of the most important supporting factors is procedural progress at the SEC. According to the data cited by Bloomberg Intelligence, all 19b-4 filings tied to the listed assets have been acknowledged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The relevant decision deadlines span from July through December 2025, setting up a packed second half of the year for crypto ETF watchers. At the same time, the SEC has not accelerated the process across the board: it recently delayed decisions on the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF and the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, underscoring that procedural acknowledgment does not guarantee immediate approval.
Commodity treatment and futures markets matter
Bloomberg’s analysts pointed to a key regulatory consideration behind the relatively high odds. The expectation is that the SEC may treat many of these assets as commodities, a classification that could make the path to approval smoother than if they were approached as securities. In addition, most of the assets in question have regulated futures markets, which is widely seen as a favorable factor when regulators assess market surveillance, pricing mechanisms, and investor protections tied to ETF proposals.
This framework helps explain why SOL, LTC, and XRP have moved to the front of the pack. In practical terms, the market is increasingly asking whether these products can follow the route already established by bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH), whose spot ETF markets are now operational and serve as precedent for the broader digital asset investment category.
Polymarket signals similar optimism
Prediction market activity on Polymarket shows a similar rise in confidence. As of April 30, the market betting on a SOL ETF approval by year-end stood at 89%, up 15%, with $142,806 in total trading volume. That figure closely tracks Bloomberg Intelligence’s 90% estimate, suggesting that both analytical and speculative markets are converging around the view that Solana is among the strongest candidates for approval.
Litecoin and XRP also saw improving sentiment on Polymarket, with both contracts trading at 79% approval odds. The XRP contract, which tracks expectations tied to a Ripple-related ETF approval outcome, recorded $65,640 in volume, while the Litecoin market processed $42,181. Those numbers point to moderate but increasing speculative participation, especially as the SEC’s decision windows draw closer.
Cardano draws attention despite lower analyst odds
Cardano (ADA) stands out as a slight outlier in the dataset. Bloomberg’s estimate for ADA sits at a more conservative 75%, but Polymarket pricing placed its approval odds at 69%, after a recent rise of 59%. More notably, the ADA-related contract posted $366,581 in trading volume, the highest among the assets referenced. That level of activity suggests traders are paying close attention to Cardano’s ETF prospects, even if analyst estimates remain somewhat more restrained than for Solana, Litecoin, or XRP.
The divergence is notable because it shows how market interest and formal analyst models do not always move in perfect lockstep. While Bloomberg’s framework appears to reward factors such as regulatory posture and futures-market structure, prediction markets can also capture momentum, sentiment shifts, and event-driven speculation.
Why the second half of 2025 matters
With SEC deadlines clustered between July and December 2025, the second half of the year is shaping up to be a key period for the U.S. digital asset investment market. The approvals or denials of these applications could influence not only the accessibility of individual crypto assets for mainstream investors, but also the broader narrative around how U.S. regulators intend to handle the next wave of exchange-traded crypto products.
For issuers, an approval would open the door to new retail and institutional inflows through familiar brokerage channels. For the market, it would likely reinforce the idea that the ETF wrapper is becoming the dominant bridge between traditional finance and digital assets. For regulators, however, each decision remains tied to questions of classification, market integrity, and surveillance standards.
For now, the available evidence points to a market that is increasingly confident, but still aware of regulatory uncertainty. Bloomberg Intelligence has placed Solana, Litecoin, and XRP at the top of the approval rankings, while Polymarket traders have broadly echoed that optimism. Whether that confidence is ultimately validated will depend on how the SEC navigates the coming deadlines—and whether these assets can indeed follow the path first cleared by bitcoin and ethereum.