Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have updated their outlook for 2025 U.S. spot cryptocurrency ETF approvals, placing Solana (SOL) at a 90% probability of approval. Litecoin (LTC) and digital asset index basket products were also assigned 90% odds, putting them at the top of the current approval rankings among non-Bitcoin and non-Ethereum crypto ETF candidates.
XRP follows closely with an 85% chance, while other assets including Dogecoin (DOGE), Polkadot (DOT), Cardano (ADA), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX) were given approval odds in the 75% to 80% range. The updated projections suggest that market attention is increasingly shifting beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum toward a broader set of crypto assets that could enter the U.S. ETF market over the next regulatory cycle.
SEC Acknowledgments Support Approval Expectations
According to the Bloomberg Intelligence chart referenced in the report, all 19b-4 filings tied to the listed assets have already been acknowledged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The relevant decision deadlines are spread across July through December 2025, creating a timeline that could keep the crypto ETF narrative active for much of the year.
The SEC recently delayed decisions on the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF and the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF. Even so, the broader tone of the market remains constructive rather than pessimistic. Delays in crypto ETF review processes are common, and investors appear to be focusing more on the growing procedural progress and asset-specific regulatory context than on short-term postponements.
One of the key factors supporting approval optimism is the expectation that the SEC may treat many of these tokens as commodities. Bloomberg’s analysts also pointed to the presence of regulated futures markets for most of the assets in question, which is widely considered a favorable signal in the ETF approval process. In prior crypto ETF debates, futures market structure and surveillance-related considerations have played an important role in shaping regulatory comfort levels.
Prediction Market Data Shows Similar Confidence
Sentiment on the prediction platform Polymarket broadly aligns with Bloomberg’s assessment. As of April 30, the market pricing for a SOL ETF approval by year-end implied an 89% probability, representing a 15% increase over recent levels. Trading volume in that contract reached $142,806, indicating meaningful participation and reinforcing the view that Solana is seen as one of the strongest ETF candidates in the current field.
Litecoin and XRP have also attracted rising confidence on Polymarket. Both contracts were trading at a 79% probability of approval. The XRP market, which tracks expectations for a Ripple-linked ETF outcome, had recorded $65,640 in volume, while the Litecoin market had processed $42,181. Although these volumes are not exceptionally large by broader market standards, they point to steady and growing speculative engagement as regulatory deadlines come into clearer focus.
Cardano Draws Strong Interest Despite Lower Odds
Cardano presents a more mixed picture. Bloomberg Intelligence assigned ADA a relatively conservative 75% approval probability, below the top-tier group led by Solana and Litecoin. On Polymarket, Cardano was trading at 69%, but the contract had risen 59% in recent days, signaling a rapid improvement in sentiment.
Notably, Cardano had the highest trading volume among the listed assets on Polymarket, reaching $366,581. That gap between Bloomberg’s more measured estimate and the prediction market’s intense trader interest suggests that Cardano is becoming a focal point for speculative attention, even if analysts remain somewhat more restrained in their probability assessment.
A Broader Crypto ETF Expansion May Be Taking Shape
The latest projections arrive as investors continue to evaluate whether a second wave of spot crypto ETFs could emerge in the United States following the establishment of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF markets. Those products have already created a regulatory and market framework that issuers hope can be extended to other large-cap digital assets.
If the SEC ultimately approves some of these filings, the result could significantly broaden institutional access to crypto exposure through regulated exchange-traded products. That would be particularly important for assets like Solana, Litecoin, and XRP, which have long maintained strong market recognition but have not yet secured the same mainstream investment wrappers available to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For now, Bloomberg’s updated approval odds and Polymarket’s parallel betting data both point in the same direction: confidence is building around a wider slate of U.S. spot crypto ETFs in 2025. The strongest current candidates appear to be Solana, Litecoin, and crypto index baskets, with XRP not far behind. As SEC review windows narrow, these probability estimates are likely to remain central to how traders, issuers, and market watchers gauge the next phase of crypto ETF adoption.