Bloomberg Intelligence exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have released updated odds for 2025 U.S. spot cryptocurrency ETF approvals, assigning a 90% chance to solana (SOL), litecoin (LTC), and digital asset index baskets.
Forecast Breakdown
The analysts note that XRP follows closely with an 85% probability, while dogecoin (DOGE), polkadot (DOT), cardano (ADA), hedera (HBAR), and avalanche (AVAX) round out the forecast with odds ranging from 75% to 80%. All 19b-4 filings for the listed assets have been acknowledged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with decision deadlines spanning from July to December 2025.
SEC Delays Some Decisions
On Tuesday, the SEC delayed the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF and the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF decisions. The SEC is expected to classify these assets as commodities, and most have regulated futures—a factor seen as favorable for approval.
Polymarket Reflects Optimism
Prediction market Polymarket aligns with Bloomberg’s forecast. As of April 30, the SOL ETF wager shows an 89% likelihood of approval by year-end, up 15%, with a total volume of $142,806 traded. Litecoin and XRP both now trade at a 79% chance on Polymarket. Cardano lags at 69%, though up 59% in recent days, with the highest volume among listed assets at $366,581.
BTC and ETH Precedent
As SEC deadlines near, investors and analysts alike are watching closely to see whether these assets will follow in the footsteps of bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH), whose spot ETF markets are already established.