Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned that a broad market downturn may be approaching in 2026, arguing that stretched valuations, falling crypto prices, and deflationary pressures are flashing familiar pre-crisis signals.
Bitcoin: First Stop $50,000, Then $10,000
In a wide-ranging interview with David Lin on The David Lin Report, McGlone laid out a cautious outlook for U.S. equities, bitcoin, commodities, and global monetary policy. “I see a hurricane coming,” he said, pointing to mounting downside risks across risk assets. “Bitcoin, the first stop is around $50,000… I think it’s going to $10,000.” This is not the first time McGlone has insisted that BTC dips down to the $10,000 threshold.
McGlone argued that bitcoin and the broader crypto market have already begun to roll over, calling cryptocurrencies a leading indicator of wider market stress. He said the asset class peaked in 2024 and 2025 following the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and President Trump’s election, which he described as the final accelerant of speculative excess. According to McGlone, correlations between bitcoin and U.S. equities have strengthened materially, undermining the idea that crypto operates independently from traditional markets. “They’re all correlated,” he said, adding that bitcoin increasingly trades like a leveraged equity rather than a defensive asset.
U.S. Equities: Overdue for a Correction
The strategist also expressed concern about U.S. equities, noting that stock market capitalization relative to GDP remains near historic extremes. He said even a pullback to the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average could trigger broader deleveraging across asset classes. “We’re overdue,” McGlone stated, referring to the absence of a meaningful down year since 2008. He added, “All the signs are there for me.”
Gold: Long-Term Bullish but Currently Overstretched
While McGlone has been a long-time gold bull, he said precious metals now look overstretched following their strongest annual performance since 1979. “Gold is way too stretched for me,” he said, adding that extreme price deviations often precede sharp corrections. Still, McGlone maintained that gold could eventually reach $5,000 per ounce, though he cautioned that investors should be wary of initiating new long positions after such a rapid move. He described gold’s recent behavior as a warning signal rather than a green light.
Monetary Policy and Deflation: The 2026 Theme
On monetary policy, McGlone said recent Federal Reserve Treasury purchases resemble the early innings of easing, even if officials avoid calling it quantitative easing. He argued that deflationary forces — not inflation — are likely to dominate in 2026 as global growth slows. McGlone said falling energy prices, weakening global demand, and slowing growth in China reinforce his deflation thesis, noting that crude oil and natural gas have already broken lower. “Crude oil is heading lower, so I’m pointing that out,” he said.
Among major asset classes, McGlone said U.S. Treasurys remain the most attractive risk-off option, describing long-duration bonds as a functional hedge against equity drawdowns. “Treasury bonds… that’s the bias for next year,” he said.
Market Complacency and the Trigger
He concluded by warning that market complacency remains high, with volatility measures near multi-year lows. “People are just waiting for a trigger,” McGlone said. “That move is sell.”