A Bloomberg report has highlighted a widening performance gap on prediction market platform Polymarket. According to the report, more than 100,000 accounts have each lost at least $1,000, nearly twice the number of accounts that posted profits of a similar size. In contrast, roughly 823 highly active accounts, identified as bots, collectively generated about $131 million in profits.
Bots dominate trading activity
The report says these automated accounts represent only around 5% of total wallets, yet they are responsible for 75% of Polymarket’s trading volume. Their advantage comes from high-frequency activity across multiple markets, allowing them to enter positions earlier and secure better prices than slower participants.
Polymarket’s annual trading volume exceeds $50 billion, making execution quality increasingly important. In such an environment, bots benefit from speed and consistency, while ordinary traders often enter after prices have already moved. As a result, even traders who correctly predict an outcome can still lose money because of poor timing and unfavorable fills.
Why retail traders struggle
The report also notes that since 2022, 68.8% of traders analyzing public opinion and geopolitical developments have ended up losing money. One key reason is repeated trading near extreme price levels, which weakens risk-reward dynamics and leaves less room for profitable exits.
The findings suggest that prediction markets are not simply about being right on an event. For retail users, timing, pricing, and trade frequency matter just as much as directional judgment. In Polymarket’s case, the current market structure appears to favor automated, high-speed strategies over discretionary participation by ordinary traders.