Weekend negotiations ended without a deal, prompting Trump to authorize a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Iran. Brent crude surged 7.7% above $101 per barrel, S&P 500 futures dipped 0.6% at the open, and gold pulled back to $4,710. Global energy supply fears intensified sharply.
Hormuz Blockade Hits Global Energy Flows
NATO members were given only a short window to deploy troops and ships at Trump's request, and the scenario is now unfolding as expected. Attacks attributed to Iran have slashed over 7 million barrels per day from daily production, while global output typically runs around 33 million barrels. That's a roughly one-fifth supply cut. A two-week ceasefire is still in effect, keeping some hope for a peaceful resolution alive, but the fresh crude spike combined with strong March US CPI data is pushing bond markets back into an inflation mindset. Japan's 10-year government bond yields hit their highest since 1997, reviving carry trade risks — exactly what risk markets wanted to avoid.
Crypto Markets Under Pressure
Multiple Fed officials — Barr, Collins, Paulson, and Goolsbee — are set to speak tomorrow, while Iran will address the situation tonight. Their reactions to recent inflation data could shift rate expectations. Meanwhile, Strategy bought nearly $1 billion worth of BTC, and BitMine added 71,524 ETH to its holdings. Bitcoin briefly touched resistance at $73,855 before retreating, currently holding above $70,500. Sustained selling could drag it to the $69,200–$67,000 range in the coming hours or days. After 68 days of consolidation, historical patterns suggest a breakout is nearing, but the direction hinges on the outcome of ongoing talks.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, RAVE stood out as the day's top performer with a strong start; STABLE logged 13% gains. Yet the number of altcoins rising more than 3% today can be counted on one hand.
Investor confidence hangs on the temporary ceasefire, but major moves in energy and inflation data are again making markets jittery, with crypto caught in the crossfire. The overall risk sentiment remains fragile as both political and economic developments cast uncertainty over traditional and digital assets alike. Market participants are closely watching upcoming Fed speeches for any clues on rate policy; a hint of change could trigger significant cross-asset reactions. For now, both legacy and crypto markets are bracing for another roller-coaster week, awaiting clarity from global leaders and economic data to shape the next major move.