BRICS nations could account for more than half of global economic output within the next 10 to 15 years, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, highlighting what Moscow sees as a major shift in the balance of global economic power. The projection adds to a broader debate over whether the expanding BRICS bloc can increasingly challenge the long-standing dominance of Western-led institutions and G7 economies.
Russia Sees BRICS’ Global Weight Rising Further
In an interview with Rossiya-24, Novak said BRICS currently represents about 35% of global GDP and continues to grow year by year. He stated that Russia expects the bloc’s share of world output to surpass 50% over the next 10 to 15 years. The comment reflects a more confident tone from Russian officials about BRICS’ long-term role in global economic expansion.
The outlook is also consistent with earlier remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said at the BRICS Business Forum in October that BRICS has already overtaken the G7 in its share of global GDP and continues to strengthen its position. Putin described BRICS members as central drivers of international economic growth and development, arguing that much of the foreseeable increase in global GDP will come from the bloc.
Expansion Has Changed the Bloc’s Scale and Reach
Originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS expanded significantly in 2024 by adding Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The move broadened the group’s geographic footprint and increased its strategic relevance across the Middle East and Africa.
The new membership also strengthened BRICS in practical economic terms. Saudi Arabia and the UAE bring major oil-producing capacity, reinforcing the bloc’s influence in global energy markets. Iran adds strategic energy and trade connectivity, while Egypt and Ethiopia deepen African representation within the grouping. Taken together, the expansion signals an effort by BRICS to position itself as a stronger platform for the Global South and as a more visible counterweight to Western-dominated economic frameworks.
PPP Metrics Show BRICS Ahead of the G7
Public data for 2024 suggests that, on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, BRICS economies account for around 37.3% of global GDP, compared with 30% for the G7. That comparison is significant because PPP adjusts for differences in price levels and cost of living, offering a different lens on real economic output.
Within BRICS, China represents approximately 19.05% of global GDP on a PPP basis, while India accounts for about 8.23%, according to figures cited from the International Monetary Fund. By comparison, the United States and the European Union each account for roughly 14.5%.
However, the picture changes under nominal GDP measurements. On that basis, the G7 still leads with around 44% of global GDP, while BRICS holds about 28%. This distinction remains important: BRICS appears stronger when output is measured in PPP terms, but the advanced Western economies continue to dominate in nominal-dollar terms, which still shape many financial, trade, and capital market benchmarks.
Why the Projection Matters
The significance of Novak’s projection lies not only in headline GDP share, but in what it implies about the future structure of global growth. BRICS countries collectively combine large populations, resource-rich territories, industrial capacity, and rising domestic markets. With the 2024 expansion, the bloc has become even more diverse in terms of energy assets, trade routes, and regional influence.
If BRICS does move toward accounting for more than half of global output over the coming decade and a half, that would mark a substantial shift in the world economy’s center of gravity. It would also intensify questions about whether existing governance institutions, many of which were built around postwar Western leadership, can continue to reflect global economic realities.
At the same time, the gap between PPP-based influence and nominal GDP power shows that BRICS’ rise is not a simple story of immediate displacement. The bloc may be gaining scale and structural importance, but Western economies still retain strong advantages in finance, currency dominance, and institutional reach.
A Broader Rebalancing of Global Economic Power
Still, the trend outlined by Russian officials points to a broader rebalancing that has been underway for years. Emerging economies have taken on a larger share of production, consumption, and trade, while commodity-rich states and high-growth Asian economies have become increasingly important to global supply chains and energy markets.
BRICS’ latest expansion underscores that its ambitions are no longer limited to symbolic coordination among major emerging economies. The bloc is increasingly presenting itself as a forum with the scale to influence global governance debates, represent developing-country interests more forcefully, and reshape discussions around trade, finance, and energy cooperation.
Whether BRICS can ultimately convert its economic mass into deeper policy coordination and durable institutional influence remains an open question. But based on the latest projections and membership changes, its rising weight in the global economy is becoming harder to dismiss.