Bitcoin is trading around $64,800 to $65,000, and Foresight’s July 16 morning note says the market is leaning slightly upward for now. The report’s key level is $65,500. If BTC cannot get through it, the move likely turns into more consolidation. If it breaks with volume, the next area to watch is $67,000.
BTC touched $65,511 intraday in the previous session, clearing the $65,000 mark at one point before slipping back. It closed near $64,858, down 0.18% on the day. From Monday’s $61,800 level, the coin is still up roughly 5% over four days. Ether showed more strength, rising 2% to $1,923 and moving back above $1,900 for the first time in 43 days. SOL traded near $77.
Why the report still sees a modest upside bias
The author lays out three reasons.
First, BTC has now traded above $65,000, and the report treats that as a meaningful signal. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin repeatedly ran into resistance in the $64,000 to $65,000 range and failed to push through. This time it reached $65,511. It did not hold the breakout into the close, but the move suggested that sell pressure above the range is no longer impenetrable. In the report’s wording, bulls are gradually absorbing overhead supply.
The broader technical structure is still intact. On the 4-hour chart, EMA20 remains above EMA50, and the Bollinger mid-band at $63,700 is acting as support. Foresight says the larger uptrend structure has not broken and that the latest pullback looks more like a technical pause after a rally than a trend reversal.
Second, ETF money is starting to come back. On July 15, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of 2,648 BTC, worth about $172 million. Spot Ether ETFs saw net inflows of 31,300 ETH, worth around $60.08 million. The seven-day view is still negative for BTC, with net outflows of 5,716 BTC, or about $372 million, but the day-to-day flow trend has improved.
The note says Bitcoin ETFs had just ended an eight-week streak of outflows last week and have now logged three consecutive days of net inflows this week. Institutional money, in that reading, is returning gradually rather than all at once.
Third, the market may already have priced in Warsh’s hawkish stance. According to the report, Warsh said three things at the hearing: he has zero tolerance for inflation, he will not relax his stance based on a single month of CPI data, and he will not support bailouts for crypto firms. Foresight argues that these points had largely been reflected in pricing before the CPI release and did not amount to a fresh surprise.
The report also notes that Warsh publicly opposed a digital dollar, calling it a “bad policy choice.” In the author’s view, that is a favorable signal for the crypto sector.
Macro backdrop and flows: geopolitics remain a risk, ETF inflows continue
Iran warns over the strait
On the macro side, the report says the U.S.-Iran conflict is still ongoing. Iran issued a strong warning that U.S. provocations would directly delay any reopening of the strait, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had redeployed to the Hormuz defense zone. Iran also said no U.S. aggression would force it to reopen the strategic waterway.
Oil has now risen for a third straight session. WTI is trading near $79.8, with Brent above that level. At the same time, the report says geopolitical risk is already well reflected in prices and that crude may be moving into a pause-and-watch phase. It also mentions Donald Trump’s comment that oil could drop to $55 once the situation stabilizes, while making clear that the market should not take that as a working assumption.
For crypto, the report’s point is that BTC can temporarily shake off the pressure chain of rising oil, higher inflation expectations, stronger rate expectations, and weaker Bitcoin, as long as crude does not continue to surge and no new geopolitical shock appears.
Exchange outflows still dominate
On flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $172 million on July 15, and spot Ether ETFs added $60.08 million. That extended the improving pattern after Bitcoin ETF products had just ended eight straight weeks of outflows last week.
On-chain and exchange data also looked constructive in the report. Over the past 24 hours, centralized exchanges recorded net outflows of 2,602 BTC. Foresight says coins moving from exchanges to cold wallets should not be read as a bearish signal.
- Kraken saw net outflows of 2,082 BTC
- Bybit posted net outflows of 890 BTC
- Coinbase Pro recorded net outflows of 765 BTC
- Binance was the only major venue with net inflows, at 1,030 BTC
Overall, the report says withdrawal activity is still stronger than deposit activity. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 28, which keeps the market in the “fear” zone.
AI semiconductor stocks lead, gold stays range-bound
In traditional markets, the note says AI semiconductor names are still driving the U.S. equity story. SK Hynix remained strong, and the Nasdaq held up with support from technology stocks. Gold traded around 4,100, pulled between supportive CPI data and Warsh’s hawkish message.
Technical levels: BTC faces resistance at $65,500 to $65,700
Bitcoin
On the 4-hour chart, BTC is consolidating near $65,000 after briefly touching $65,511 and pulling back. EMA20 and EMA50 remain aligned in bullish order, and the Bollinger mid-band near $63,700 is still providing support. But the report says each push higher is getting harder. If repeated attempts at $65,500 fail, that would confirm heavy selling pressure overhead.
On the 1-hour chart, MACD has just formed a bearish crossover, while RSI has eased back to 56.7, pointing to near-term adjustment pressure. On the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin is trapped in a narrow $64,800 to $65,000 range.
The report marks $65,500 to $65,700 as the short-term ceiling. A confirmed breakout would open the way toward $66,500 and possibly $67,000. On the downside, $64,500 is the first support. If that breaks, the next area is $64,000 to $63,700, where the Bollinger mid-band sits. Even so, the broader structure is still described as range-bound but biased upward, and pullbacks that hold above $64,000 are still seen as opportunities.
Ether
ETH is showing more independent strength on the 4-hour chart and has reclaimed $1,900 for the first time in 43 days. The report also points to a rising ETH/BTC ratio as a sign that some capital is rotating from BTC into ETH. Resistance is placed at $1,950 to $2,000, with support at $1,880 to $1,850.
SOL
SOL is moving sideways near $77 on the 4-hour chart. Resistance comes in at $78 to $79, while support is seen at $75 to $76.
Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and gold
The Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish structure on the 4-hour chart, supported by the ongoing AI semiconductor trade. The S&P 500 is trading near 7,550, less than 1% below its record high of 7,620. Gold continues to move sideways around 4,100, with resistance at 4,150 to 4,200 and support at 4,050 to 4,000.
Today’s outlook: three scenarios, one key variable
Foresight’s central call is that the upside odds are slightly better than the downside, but $65,500 is the true test.
Scenario one, which the report assigns the highest probability at about 50%, is a consolidation range between $64,500 and $65,500 while the market waits for a fresh catalyst. Breaking $65,000 was constructive, but holding above it is what would attract more momentum buying.
Scenario two has a probability of about 30%. In that case, bulls extend the move, BTC breaks above $65,500 on strong volume, and price opens a path toward $66,500 to $67,000. If ETH can hold above $1,900, the report says that would add to market sentiment.
Scenario three carries a probability of about 20%. A sudden worsening in geopolitics or a more hawkish tone from Warsh at his second hearing could send BTC back to $64,000 or even $63,700.
The report boils the day down to one variable: whether Bitcoin can clear $65,500 with volume. If not, expect more sideways trade. If yes, the market may be entering a new leg higher.
Trading setups and risk warning
The author says the directional bias remains bullish, but not enough to justify chasing before $65,500 is confirmed. BTC has already moved from $61,800 to $65,500, a gain of $3,700 in four days, so the next move matters.
- A more conservative long setup would wait for BTC to retest $64,000 to $64,500, hold that zone, and show signs of stabilization. The report places a stop at $63,500 and targets $65,500 to $66,500.
- A more aggressive breakout trade would wait for BTC to clear $65,500 on stronger volume, with rising turnover on the 15-minute chart. That setup uses a stop at $64,800 and targets $66,500 to $67,000.
- A higher-risk short idea would look for BTC to bounce into $65,500 to $65,700 on fading volume and fail to push through. The report puts the stop at $66,000 and the downside target at $64,500 to $64,000.
As for risk, the note warns that Warsh is due to appear at another hearing later in the evening, this time in the Senate, and that his wording could be more hawkish than in the first session. The report advises strict stop-loss discipline for short positions.
Its final takeaway is straightforward: BTC has traded above $65,000, ETH is back above $1,900, and ETF flows have turned positive again. The structure is improving, but $65,500 remains the market’s real proving ground.