Bitcoin Five-Wave Correction Structure Analysis
This week, BTC is in the final phase of a clear five-wave corrective structure (wave 39 to wave 44) that started after the June 6 low of $59,100 and ended at wave 39 ($67,300). The current 43-44 sub-wave is being completed. The final location of wave 44 will determine the short-term direction: if above $58,110, a strong technical rebound is likely, followed by a wide range consolidation. If below $58,110 but with bullish momentum divergence, a rebound is still possible but with uncertain strength. If below without divergence, further breakdown risk increases. Our proprietary quantitative model suggests the first two scenarios are more probable.
Bitcoin Key Support/Resistance and Trading Strategy
Key resistance zones: first resistance $60,900-$62,300 (previous high/low levels), second resistance near $65,500, third resistance $67,300-$69,500. Key support remains near the $58,100 prior low. For the mid-term, maintain a 20% short position (the price has broken below the long-short channel, confirming bear dominance). For short-term, use 30% capital to trade the support-resistance range on the 30/60-minute chart. We have prepared three sets of contingency plans (A/B/C) to handle complex market dynamics.
HYPE Five-Wave Correction and Short-Term Strategy
HYPE started a five-wave correction from the June 16 high of $76.94 (wave 51). On the 4-hour chart, it shows a clear 51-52, 52-53, 53-54, 54-55, 55-56 structure. Wave 56 is crucial: if it forms a double bottom above the prior low, a bounce becomes likely. Key resistance: $65.5 and $71.5; key support: above $58.8 and the deeper $52-$54 zone. The strategy is to buy on dips but avoid chasing. When the price stabilizes at support and both our quantitative models trigger bottom signals, open a light long with position size strictly below 30% and strict stop-loss. Last week we executed two short trades using our spread model and momentum model: first short at $64,530 (15% position) closed at $62,474 (+3.18%); second short at $62,679 closed at $60,775 (+3.03%), for a total profit of 6.21%.
Disclaimer: Financial markets are volatile. All analysis and strategies require dynamic adjustment. This article is a personal trading log and does not constitute investment advice.
