Bitcoin is hovering around $64,000, and that leaves buyers who entered when BTC first pushed above $120,000 in July 2025 still deeply underwater. At that level, a break-even recovery would require a 92.2% rally.
According to a report written by CryptoSlate author Liam "Akiba" Wright and translated by TechFlow, an investor who put $1,000 into BTC when it first broke $120,000 in July 2025 would now be left with about $520. That equals a 47.98% loss, excluding fees.
The report said Bitcoin first moved above $120,000 in July 2025 and set a record high of $123,165. It later climbed again on Oct. 6, 2025, reaching a higher all-time high of $126,198. Current prices remain well below both milestones.
$72,200 and $76,600 are the first rebound checkpoints
Glassnode said in its Week 27 research report that the short-term holder cost basis sits near $72,200. That level reflects the aggregate break-even point for more recent buyers. The true market mean, a broader cost benchmark for active investors, stands around $76,600. BTC has traded below both levels for roughly five months.
Those two price zones could become the first real test on the way up. As Bitcoin approaches them, losses for higher-entry buyers would begin to shrink, while some other holders would gain an earlier window to exit. Some may keep holding once they return to profit. Others may cut exposure after an extended drawdown. The key issue is whether demand at those levels is strong enough to absorb the supply that may come back into the market.
Key price levels
- $72,200: a 12.7% rise from current levels, marking the short-term holder cost basis.
- $76,600: a 19.6% rise, marking the true market mean.
- $100,000: a 56.1% rise, described as a psychological threshold.
- $123,000: a 92.2% rise, representing the July 2025 entry zone for buyers who entered near the highs.
Glassnode says the bottom is still not confirmed
In an update on July 13, Glassnode said Bitcoin’s move toward $64,000 lacked broad conviction, with both spot participation and on-chain activity remaining weak. On July 15, the firm said long-term holder capitulation was easing and that buyers had absorbed the June lows, but it still described the bottom as “a work in progress.”
Those updates point to gradual improvement rather than a clean reversal. For BTC to move through the first two cost-basis levels, stronger demand still needs to show up. Around $72,200 and $76,600, the market question is straightforward: how much latent sell pressure will emerge, and can buyers absorb it?
Glassnode has also kept downside risk in view. In a July 8 report, it said the bear market lower-band realized price near $53,000 could still be reached. The firm described that level as residual risk and continued to classify the market bottom as unconfirmed.
High-price buyers need BTC to reclaim the first two cost bases first
The report said $100,000 and $123,000 only become more relevant if Bitcoin can first reclaim the two nearer cost-basis levels at $72,200 and $76,600. A stronger recovery starts with demand absorbing risk release near $72,200, then doing the same at $76,600.
Until those two checkpoints are reclaimed with broader participation, buyers who entered near the 2025 highs still face the same problem: as price moves closer to their cost basis, holders with earlier exit opportunities may become the first meaningful source of supply.