Bitcoin has been hovering around the $88,000 support level since the weekend, with price action staying weak. The source notes that recent swings in gold and silver have been larger than those seen in crypto, while BTC has slipped back below its descending trendline and continues to trade in a vulnerable range. If it cannot reclaim $92,000 this week, the current downward setup is likely to stay in place.
Fed rate decision takes center stage
The main macro event on the market calendar is the Federal Reserve's rate decision due later today. According to the source, markets broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged, keeping the policy range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The earliest likely timing for a rate cut is seen as after June, which suggests the decision itself may not trigger a major boost for risk assets.
Attention is likely to shift quickly to Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. His comments on inflation are the key point traders are watching. If his tone comes across as hawkish, markets could face fresh downside pressure, and crypto would likely be affected as well. That is the part the market is watching most closely.
Shutdown odds add another layer of pressure
Beyond monetary policy, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown at the end of the month is also drawing attention. The source says the prediction on Polymarket has climbed to 80%. If the U.S. government shuts down again, that could weigh on U.S. equities and then feed into crypto market performance.
The same report says political instability in the U.S. has left markets highly sensitive, while continued gains in precious metals point to stronger demand for defensive assets. In that setting, risk assets may face a deeper pullback. For this week, the focus is not only on whether BTC can hold $88,000, but also on whether the Fed message and U.S. political developments trigger wider volatility.