An Odaily guest analysis says Bitcoin may be close to the end of the rebound that started from its July 1 low, with the latest daily structure pointing to a late-stage e-wave rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
The same piece also reviews HYPE, which recently printed a new all-time high and is now in a pullback. The article says the token’s longer-term bullish structure remains intact, while the market tests whether the breakout can hold on a retest.
This week’s focus
The analysis is organized around four parts: BTC’s daily structure, BTC’s market outlook and medium- and short-term strategy for the week, HYPE’s daily structure, and HYPE’s weekly outlook and short-term strategy.
BTC daily chart: rebound may already be in the e-wave stage
The article says its previous weekly review used Chan theory to break down BTC’s rebound from the July 1 low, especially the daily structure since September. That earlier view expected the market to remain in high-level consolidation from Sept. 3 and build a second upward center. According to the piece, actual price action has broadly followed that path and the structure is still being built.
This week, the framework shifts to Elliott Wave analysis. The article says BTC has formed a preliminary five-wave advance from a to e since rebounding from the July 1 low of $57,820, and is now trading in the e-wave phase.
Five-wave breakdown
- Wave a: July 1 to July 21. Price rebounded from $57,820 to $66,955 over 21 trading days, with a maximum gain of 15.8%.
- Wave b: July 21 to Aug. 1. Price pulled back from $66,955 to $62,268 over 11 trading days. The article says the retracement precisely tested the 50% Fibonacci level of wave a.
- Wave c: Aug. 1 to Sept. 3. Price rose from $62,268 to $82,285 over 33 trading days, posting a maximum gain of 32.15%, close to 2.2 times the gain in wave a.
- Wave d: Sept. 3 to Sept. 15. Price fell from $82,285 to $74,955 over 12 trading days. The article says the retracement equaled 37% of wave c’s gain, and the duration was broadly symmetrical with wave b.
- Wave e: Sept. 15 to the present. The starting point is $74,955. The move has lasted 12 trading days so far, with a maximum gain of 16.6% in the current range.
Signals highlighted for BTC
The article lists several observations. First, after a rapid run higher, multiple technical indicators have entered deeply overbought territory. Second, its self-built momentum quant model is in what it describes as a top-passivation state, which the article calls a necessary precondition for a bearish divergence at the top. At the same time, its spread-trading model has repeatedly flashed top warnings.
Third, BTC is approaching a key resistance area at $88,000 to $90,500. Fourth, although price has moved above the 364-day moving average, around $80,500, it has not yet completed a retest, and the direction of that moving average is still downward.
Fifth, if the rebound fails to break above the Sept. 21 high of $87,399, or if price decisively falls below the $80,500 to $82,500 support zone, the article says that would confirm the e-wave rebound ended at $87,399.
Based on those points, the analysis argues that the probability is high for the e-wave to end in the $88,000 to $90,500 resistance area. Its conclusion is that the current move remains a daily-chart oversold rebound and that a broader trend reversal has not yet been established.
BTC weekly outlook and trading setup
The article’s core view for this week is that BTC is in the late phase of wave e, and traders should focus on where that move ends in order to confirm whether the full five-wave structure has been completed.
Resistance and support
- First resistance area: around $88,000
- Second resistance area: $91,500 to $93,000
- First support: around $82,500
- Second support: $73,500 to $75,000
- Third support: $67,300 to $69,100
Medium-term and short-term plans
Using the position-monitoring model shown in Figure 2, the article says price has broken above the bull-bear channel but has not yet gone through the retest-confirmation phase. On that basis, its medium-term strategy is to stay in cash and wait.
For short-term trading, the article proposes using a 30% position with a stop-loss in place and looking for spread-trading opportunities around support and resistance, using 30-minute or 60-minute charts as the operating timeframe.
It then lays out two short-term scenarios:
- Plan A: trade with a downside break. If the market continues lower after the weekly open and BTC decisively drops below the $80,500 to $82,500 support area, the article says a short position of around 30% can be opened. An initial stop-loss should be set. Profits can be taken in batches when price reaches major support and model signals align.
- Plan B: light short exposure in a strong resistance area. If BTC rises into the $88,000 to $90,500 area and shows a clear rejection pattern while the quant model issues a top signal, the article says a short position of around 30% can be opened. An initial stop-loss should be set, and positions can be reduced in batches near major support when model signals line up.
HYPE: new high followed by a retest phase
In the HYPE section, the article first reviews last week’s call. It says the earlier weekly report clearly stated that if the 16-17 upswing was confirmed to have ended, the market would shift into high-level consolidation. According to the piece, actual price action has largely matched that view.
For the current structure, the article makes three points. First, HYPE reached a record high of $101.93 on Sept. 22, which it interprets as confirmation that the long-term bullish trend remains intact. Second, the present move is defined as a retest after breaking above the prior high of $89.69. Support around that level is described as the short-term dividing line: if it holds, the market may continue to grind higher in consolidation; if it fails, the correction may last longer.
Third, if price decisively breaks below the key support near $89.69, the article says the next downside test could extend toward support near $85, and even revisit support near $77.
HYPE levels and short-term strategy for the week
Key levels
- First resistance: around $102
- Second resistance: around $110
- First support: around $90
- Second support: $84 to $85
- Third support: $76 to $77
The article’s central view on HYPE this week is that the battle between bulls and bears is concentrated near the key $90 support area. Combined with signals from its self-built quant model, it says the probability remains high that price will stay in a high-level consolidation pattern.
Short-term trading plans
- If price pulls back toward support near $89.69 and forms a stabilization pattern, while the quant model also confirms a bottom, the article says traders can build long positions in batches with exposure capped at 30%, with stop-losses set and strictly enforced.
- If support at $89.69 gives way, the article says traders can wait for price to continue correcting into the $77 to $85 area. If stabilization signals emerge there and the quant model confirms a bottom, long positions of no more than 30% can be opened, again with stop-loss discipline.
Risk-control notes listed in the article
- Set an initial stop-loss immediately after opening a position.
- When profit reaches 1%, move the stop-loss to the entry price, or break-even.
- When profit reaches 2%, move the stop-loss to lock in 1% profit.
- After that, for every additional 1% in profit, move the stop-loss higher by 1% as well to protect gains dynamically.
The article closes by saying financial markets can change quickly and that all market analysis and trading strategies need to be adjusted dynamically. It also states that all views, analytical models and trading setups in the piece reflect personal technical analysis for the author’s own trading log and do not constitute investment advice or a basis for trading decisions.