Bitcoin is struggling to keep pace with the broader risk rally even as U.S. equities push to fresh highs, and Foresight said Aug. 5 that the market still looks slightly tilted to the downside unless BTC can clear the $64,200 area with convincing volume.
BTC rebounds, but the move remains limited
According to the market note, BTC was trading around $63,800-$64,200 after rebounding from about $62,300 the previous day. It broke above $64,100 overnight, and a South Korea morning quote showed $64,126. The report put Bitcoin’s 24-hour gain at about 1.09%, with an intraday range of $62,784 to $65,005.
Ether was quoted near $1,860-$1,870 and was down about 1.26% over 24 hours, clearly lagging BTC. SOL was trading in the $73.3-$74 area, with little movement.
Foresight’s core call was straightforward: downside odds are a bit higher. In its reading, failure to reclaim $64,200 keeps Bitcoin in a choppy structure, and the coin’s muted response to the stock rally points to weak internal momentum.
Why the report sees higher downside risk
Stocks surged, but BTC rose only about 1%
The note first points to the gap between equity performance and Bitcoin’s response. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to 53,178 and set a record closing high. The Nasdaq rose 2.13% to 25,913, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.48% to 7,600. Among large tech names, Meta advanced 6%, Amazon added 4.6%, and Alphabet and Microsoft each rose about 5%.
Bitcoin, by comparison, moved from around $62,300 to just above $64,000, a gain of roughly 1%. The report said BTC failed to show an explosive move while equities were breaking higher. It also noted that Bitcoin remains about 50% below its all-time high and argued that its correlation with the Nasdaq appears to be loosening, which the note did not treat as a positive signal.
U.S.-Iran talks are still not finalized
The second factor is geopolitics and the oil market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Aug. 4 that the United States and Iran could reach an agreement on Aug. 4 or Aug. 5 and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump said talks had resumed and that the strait could reopen by Aug. 4 U.S. Eastern Time at the latest. Marco Rubio also said negotiations had made positive progress.
But Iranian sources said talks between Iran and Oman were still underway and accused the U.S. side of delaying results. Iran was also said to be demanding full control over vessels entering the Persian Gulf.
Foresight’s point was that no agreement had been signed. In that framework, the recent slump in oil was driven by expectations, not a completed deal. If no agreement materializes, the report said, oil could rebound and add pressure to Bitcoin.
Technically, $64,200 remains the ceiling
On chart structure, the report said Bitcoin was trading at the end of a converging triangle between $63,000 and $64,200. The broader pattern still shows lower highs, and the larger bearish structure has not been invalidated. Overhead supply from trapped holders is still there.
Short-term sentiment has improved from earlier caution, but the note said volume has not expanded in a sustained way. That leaves upside follow-through in question. BTC touched the $64,200 area but did not hold it. If price can break and hold above $64,250 on strong volume, the next upside zone is seen at $65,500-$66,000. If not, the market is more likely to slip back into a retest.
Macro drivers: geopolitics, ETF flows and traditional markets
Talks around Iran are driving oil expectations
Foresight grouped the day’s macro story around U.S.-Iran negotiations. Trump said talks had resumed and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by Aug. 4 at the latest. Bessent said a deal could come on Aug. 4 or Aug. 5. Rubio said progress had been made, while also saying a final agreement was still some distance away. Trump also warned Iran that it would face “beheading” if it did not agree to a deal.
On the Iranian side, sources said negotiations with Oman would already have produced results if the United States had not interfered. Iran was also said to be seeking full control over ships entering the Persian Gulf.
Oil responded to the possibility of an agreement. WTI fell below $76 a barrel, and Brent slipped under $79 a barrel. The report also said Brent had rebounded to around $84 after a 7% plunge on Monday. The implication in the note was clear: if a deal is formally signed, oil may extend losses and risk assets could keep rebounding; if it is not signed, oil could bounce and weigh on BTC.
Spot BTC and ETH ETFs show a split
The report also highlighted a divergence in fund flows. Spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $170.1 million the previous day. BlackRock’s IBIT brought in $111.4 million in a single session, while Fidelity’s FBTC added $33.4 million. Seven-day net inflows were about $79.36 million.
Spot ETH ETFs moved the other way, posting a net outflow of $11.4 million and ending a two-day run of inflows. Seven-day net outflows were about $30.44 million.
Foresight said BTC and ETH are moving in two different directions from an institutional flow perspective, with money going into Bitcoin and leaving Ether. If that split continues, it would make institutional preference inside crypto much more visible. The note added that the Fear and Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone, suggesting sentiment has not recovered as quickly as price.
Record U.S. stocks, but chip weakness remains a concern
In traditional markets, Monday’s gains were broad enough to push the Dow to a record close, led by large technology shares. Still, the report flagged pressure in memory semiconductors as an unresolved issue. The memory chip group fell as much as 3% intraday, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reversed from a 3% loss to a gain of more than 1%. Shares such as SK Hynix and Micron remained under pressure, according to the note.
U.S. Treasury yields also stayed elevated, with the 10-year at about 4.74% and the 30-year at about 5.27%.
Technical levels across crypto and major markets
Bitcoin
On the 4-hour chart, the report said BTC remains inside a converging triangle from $63,000 to $64,200, with lower highs still in place. On the 1-hour timeframe, price was oscillating between $63,800 and $64,200. On the 15-minute chart, the range tightened to $63,800-$64,100.
That leaves $64,200-$64,250 as the first major hurdle. A volume-backed break and hold would open room toward $65,500-$66,000. On the downside, $63,000 is the first support. If that breaks, the next area is $62,200-$62,500. Foresight’s conclusion was that the bigger structure remains weak inside a range, and failure at $64,200 would favor another pullback.
Ether
Ether was described as much weaker than Bitcoin. The note said $1,850 support has been tested multiple times on the 4-hour chart. Each touch produced a bounce, but each rebound topped out lower than the last, forming what the report called a typical weak structure. The ETH/BTC ratio has continued to soften, which the note interpreted as capital rotating from ETH into BTC.
Resistance sits at $1,890-$1,900. If bulls cannot clear the prior high at $1,898, the report said the odds of a break below $1,850 rise sharply. If that support fails, the next downside levels are $1,820 and even $1,800.
SOL, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and gold
SOL was shown moving largely in line with BTC, holding around $73.3-$74. Resistance is seen at $76-$77, while support is placed at $72-$73.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.13% overnight to 25,913, led by major technology names. Memory chips recovered after a sharp intraday drop but were still described as under pressure overall. The S&P 500 gained 1.48% to 7,600 and was said to be nearing its prior record high.
Spot gold was quoted at $4,055 an ounce as cooling geopolitical tension reduced haven demand. Resistance was placed at $4,100-$4,150, with support at $4,000-$4,050.
Three scenarios and the stated trading view
Foresight laid out three scenarios for the day.
- Scenario one, seen as the most likely at about 45%: U.S.-Iran talks remain in what the note called a “war of words” phase, no formal deal is signed, and BTC stays in a $63,000-$64,200 range. If $64,200 cannot be cleared, price turns back down for a retest.
- Scenario two, assigned about 30%: a formal U.S.-Iran agreement is signed, oil keeps falling, risk assets continue to rebound, and BTC breaks above $64,250 on volume to target $65,500-$66,000.
- Scenario three, assigned about 25%: talks collapse or Iran denies the agreement, oil rebounds, and BTC retests $63,000 or even $62,200-$62,500.
The report said the key variable was whether a U.S.-Iran agreement would actually be signed that day. Bessent said a deal could come “today,” while Trump called it a “last chance.” If the deal is completed, Bitcoin may push higher again. If not, the market could remain stuck in consolidation or slip lower.
In its trading section, the note said the ideas were “for entertainment only” and not investment advice. The author’s main stance was not to chase price before $64,200 is decisively cleared. The reasoning was simple: U.S. stocks surged, BTC followed by only about 1%, and volume did not expand. Buying into that resistance could leave traders trapped if price falls back to $63,000.
The note then listed three setups. The first was a cautious long if BTC pulls back to $63,000-$63,300, holds that area and stabilizes, with a stop at $62,500 and targets at $64,200-$64,500. The second was a more aggressive breakout long if BTC clears $64,250 on strong volume confirmed on the 15-minute timeframe, with a stop at $63,500 and targets at $65,500-$66,000. The third was a high-risk short if BTC rebounds into $64,000-$64,200 on shrinking volume and fails to push through, with a stop at $64,500 and targets at $63,000-$62,500.
The risk warning in the report said the biggest variable remains the U.S.-Iran deal. If an agreement is signed, short positions could be squeezed quickly. If no deal is signed, long positions could get trapped. The note advised position control and warned against going all-in.
Foresight closed by restating its central view: U.S. stocks have made new highs, BTC only followed by about 1%, $64,200 remains the upper edge of the converging triangle, and U.S.-Iran talks are still not beyond public statements and negotiation headlines. In that setup, the report sees slightly higher downside risk unless Bitcoin can reclaim the resistance zone on strong volume.