Crypto analyst Darkfost said on X that Bitcoin exchange inflows from long-term holders, or LTHs, show a clear shift in behavior across recent market cycles. During the March 2024 market top, LTHs were at their most active in the bull run, with average daily BTC inflows to exchanges at one point rising to more than five times the annual average. By contrast, activity around the 2025 top was relatively muted.
Darkfost said LTH activity picked up only after the bear market began. As that happened, the annual average of daily BTC exchange inflows climbed from about 600 BTC to about 1,000 BTC. He added that, as the market moved closer to a bear-market bottom, inflows on some trading days ran far above the yearly average, matching a rise in realized losses among buyers who had entered at higher levels.
According to Darkfost, that activity is now cooling again. He said exchange inflows tied to long-term holders remain well below the annual average, indicating a change in behavior and a market that is becoming more rational.
Crypto analyst Darkfost said on X that Bitcoin exchange inflows from long-term holders (LTHs) point to a change in market behavior.
Looking at LTH BTC exchange inflows, Darkfost said long-term holders were most active during the bull-market phase around the March 2024 market top. Average daily inflows to exchanges at one point rose to more than five times the annual average.
LTH activity changed between the 2024 and 2025 tops
By comparison, Darkfost said LTHs were relatively calm during the 2025 top. Their activity increased noticeably only after the bear market started, with the annual average of daily BTC exchange inflows rising from about 600 BTC to about 1,000 BTC.
Inflows spiked near the bear-market bottom
He added that as the market approached the bear-market bottom, inflows on some trading days came in far above the annual average. According to Darkfost, that lined up with an increase in realized losses among buyers who had previously entered at higher levels.
Current inflows remain below the annual average
Darkfost said LTH-related activity is now gradually cooling. Exchange inflows remain clearly below the annual average, and he said the shift suggests changing holder behavior and a market that is becoming more rational.
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