Bitcoin (BTC): Final Stage of 5-Wave Correction, Wave 44 Decides Direction
According to OdailyDepth's exclusive analysis, BTC is currently in the terminal phase of a clear 5-wave corrective structure (wave 39 to wave 44), with wave 43-44 ongoing. The final location of wave 44 is critical: if it ends above $58,110, a robust technical rebound is expected, likely leading to a wide-range consolidation; if below $58,110 but with bullish momentum divergence, a rebound is still possible but with uncertain strength; if below without divergence, further breakdown should be anticipated. The proprietary quantitative model suggests the first two scenarios are more probable.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
First resistance zone: $60,900–$62,300 (previous swing highs/lows); second resistance: near $65,500; third resistance: $67,300–$69,500. On the support side, $58,100 is a recent low; a break below opens deeper levels.
This Week's Trading Strategy
Medium-term: BTC has effectively broken the bull-bear channel, confirming a bearish market structure. Maintain a 20% short position. Short-term: Allocate 30% of capital for mean-reversion trades using the 30-min/60-min timeframe, referencing support and resistance. Additionally, three contingency plans (A/B/C) are prepared to navigate complex market scenarios.
HYPE: Parallel 5-Wave Correction, Light Long at Support Zones
HYPE started its correction from a high of $76.94 (wave 51) on June 16, forming a 5-wave structure on the 4-hour chart (waves 51-52 through 55-56). The price is now in wave 55-56, and the shape of wave 56 is pivotal. The quantitative model assigns a high probability to a double-bottom formation (wave 56 above the prior low). Key monitoring levels: if price stabilizes above $58.8 or deeper in the $52–$54 support zone, combined with bottom signals from two quantitative models, consider light long entries with strict stop-loss and position size below 30% of portfolio. First resistance at $65.5, second at $71.5.
Review and Verification of Last Week's Strategy
Last week's BTC short trades strictly followed the contingency plans based on the mean-reversion model and momentum model signals. Two trades were executed: first short at $64,530 (15% position) closed at $62,474 for a gain of ~3.18%; second short at $62,679 closed at $60,775 for ~3.03%. Total gain ~6.21% (1x leverage), confirming the efficacy of the quantitative approach.
Risk Warning and Trading Discipline
Financial markets are highly dynamic; all analysis and strategies require constant adjustment. This article is based purely on personal technical analysis and serves as a trading journal — not investment advice. Market risk exists; invest cautiously and do not rely solely on this information. Always control position size, set stop-losses, and adhere to discipline.
