CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin has reclaimed the $68,200 short-term holder cost basis during the latest rebound and broke above the roughly $67,500 SMA111 and the $69,000 SMA200 on rising volume. That move has pushed short-term holders who bought BTC recently back into profit.
Still, Adler Jr. said the broader moving-average setup remains bearish. Both the SMA111 and SMA200 are still below the SMA365, which stands at about $83,200. In his view, that means a higher-timeframe trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.
He said traders should watch whether BTC can hold the $68,000 to $69,000 area on the downside, while $83,200 is the main resistance level overhead. A breakout above the SMA365, followed by the ability to stay above it, would be an important signal that the trend may be changing.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said BTC has moved back above the $68,200 short-term holder cost basis in the current rebound, while also breaking above the roughly $67,500 SMA111 and the $69,000 SMA200 on rising volume. According to his analysis, that has returned short-term holders who bought BTC recently to a profitable position.
$83,200 remains the level to watch
Adler Jr. said the overall moving-average structure is still bearish at this stage. The SMA111 and SMA200 both remain below the SMA365, which is sitting at about $83,200, so a broader trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.
He added that the $68,000 to $69,000 range should be watched as near-term support, while $83,200 stands out as the key resistance above. If BTC can break through the SMA365 and hold above it, that would be an important confirmation signal that the trend is changing.
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