Bitcoin is struggling to recover, trading between $64,000 and $67,000 following last week's sharp sell-off. Wintermute's latest market update points to broader economic forces—rather than single events like Fed statements or tariff announcements—as the key driver of uncertainty for crypto investors.
Two Structural Trades Reshaping Markets
AI rerating is hitting software and hardware sectors in real time. U.S. FY25 earnings combined with Anthropic's model releases force a reassessment of growth multiples. Easy AI trades are fading, replaced by volatile, sector-specific adjustments.
Meanwhile, deglobalization has become structural. Trump's pivot from IEEPA to Section 122 signals permanent tariffs, fragmented supply chains, and elevated input costs. Geopolitical risk is now a consistent factor in asset allocation.
These forces attack globally integrated, software-driven growth businesses. Consequently, gold, industrials, energy, metals, and mining outperform while traditional growth stocks and crypto face pressure. The Fed cannot cut into sticky inflation nor tighten into slowing growth, leaving markets in a state of paralysis.
ETH Below $1,900, Institutional Demand Weakens
Ether has dipped below $1,900 and is approaching the psychologically sensitive level near $1,600. Liquidity thins, derivatives activity shows declining directional bets, with basis at multi-month lows and put skew rising.
Wintermute noted, “The absence of a recovery bid is more telling than the range itself.” Investor confidence remains defensive, with only brief, selective appetite from high-net-worth individuals in altcoins. Institutional demand remains muted.
BTC repeatedly failed to break $70,000, underscoring how the entire valuation framework for high-beta growth assets is being reset. Without a clear shift in macro conditions, capital continues to favor real assets and defensive sectors over crypto.