Bitcoin is running into a dense resistance band near $68,000 even as the latest rebound in crypto stays intact. BTC traded around $66,000 and briefly moved above $66,900, leaving it up more than 15% from its July low. CoinDesk said the asset currently looks more tied to chip stocks and broader risk appetite than to a standalone “digital gold” trade.
Resistance clusters above spot, with the weekly 200 EMA in focus
The immediate overhead levels cited in the report were $67,000, $67,300, $67,900 and $68,000. Bitfinex analysts said the $68,000 area matters for two reasons: it sits close to the average cost basis of investors over the past five months, and it also matches the point where a rebound failed in mid-June. That combination could bring supply back into the market as trapped holders look to exit near breakeven, making a first test of the level especially volatile.
Traders are also watching the weekly 200 MA near $63,333 and the weekly 200 EMA near $68,328. Daan Crypto Trades said BTC is trading between the weekly 200 MA, the weekly 200 EMA and the bull market support band, with price now sitting in the middle of those major levels. In that framework, a weekly close below $55,000 or above $70,000 would do more to confirm the next large directional break. A move through $68,000 could open the door to more upside. A rejection there could send Bitcoin back toward support around $63,000.
Caution has not disappeared. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, said CME Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, while spot volumes remain notably weak. In his view, the current move looks closer to a summer rebound in thin liquidity than the start of a full market-wide bull phase.
Token unlocks, ETF flows and top gainers
- MBG is set to unlock about 27.15 million tokens on July 22, worth about $3.3 million.
- SOON (SOON) is set to unlock about 20.24 million tokens on July 23, also worth about $3.3 million.
- aPriori (APR) is scheduled to unlock about 31.88 million tokens at 08:00 on July 23, worth about $6.8 million.
- Upbit’s 24-hour trading volume leaders were BTC, XRP, ETH, ERA and ONDO.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $203 million in net inflows, extending the streak to six days.
- U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $37.471 million in net inflows, extending the streak to three days.
Among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, the biggest percentage gainers were NIGHT, up 16%; BEAT, up 14.4%; HASH, up 12.1%; RAIN, up 6.3%; and GRAM, up 4.3%.
U.S. equity futures slip as chip and memory trades reverse in late hours
Futures for the three major U.S. equity indexes were lower across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.79%, Dow futures lost 0.29%, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.33%.
BIT late-session data showed that the semiconductor and memory names that surged the night before started to fade. Semiconductor ETF fell 2.22%, the 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF dropped 6.28%, and Intel lost 2.7%. In memory, Micron fell 2.29%, Sandisk slipped 1.92%, SK Hynix dropped 4.95%, and the DRAM ETF fell 3.18% after those names had posted double-digit gains in the prior session.
The most eye-catching stock after the close and in late trading was Super Micro Computer, or SMCI. The stock rose more than 20% after hours and was up 15.8% in late trading. The company said fourth-quarter revenue should come in near the low end of its guidance range of $11 billion to $12.5 billion, but gross margin was raised sharply to 15% to 17%, far above the earlier 8.2% to 8.4% forecast. More important for the market, the company said quarterly new orders exceeded $60 billion and backlog hit a record high, reinforcing the view that AI server demand remains strong.
Rocket Lab rose more than 7% after the close and 4% in late trading after securing a $266 million U.S. Air Force contract for suborbital launch missions.
Oklo rose more than 6.6% after hours and X-Energy gained more than 8.6%. Both were also up more than 3% in late trading. According to the report, the two companies formally joined the Trump administration’s new nuclear reactor construction plan, feeding a market trade centered on power infrastructure as the next layer after AI computing.
SpaceX snapped a seven-day losing streak and rose 3.08% in the prior session, then added another 0.23% in late trading. Investors are waiting for its first earnings report after listing on Aug. 4. At the same time, trading around a large-scale unlock due on Aug. 6 is getting more heated. S3 Partners estimated that about 206 million SpaceX shares are currently sold short, equal to roughly 32% of the float, for a notional short position of about $25 billion.
Stocks bounced, but oil and Treasury yields kept pressure on risk assets
U.S. equities closed higher Tuesday and ended a three-session losing streak. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.21% for its best single-day performance in six weeks. Memory stocks surged: Micron gained 12.17%, Sandisk rose 14.27%, Western Digital added 12.51%, Seagate climbed 11.14%, and U.S.-listed SK Hynix rose 13.75%. The move reflected renewed confidence that broader adoption of AI models could drive more demand for storage, compute and servers.
Bank of America said open-source models such as Kimi K3 are unlikely to weaken hardware demand. Instead, it said local deployment and private training could increase demand for HBM, DRAM and NAND. UBS made a similar point, saying large technology companies still see AI as a winner-take-all race and will keep buying hardware even if near-term returns are not high.
NVIDIA rose 1.97% after disclosing that its Vera Rubin platform has entered volume ramp-up, with deployments already under way at Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud and CoreWeave. AMD gained 8.11% as the market positioned ahead of its AI event. Intel rose 8.64% on the broader semiconductor rebound and news that its foundry business won an order from Fortinet.
Jun, a specially invited analyst for BIT U.S. equities, had said earlier that two lines matter most for stocks right now: whether earnings can validate profitability, and whether positioning in AI infrastructure and semiconductors can stay stable. Those shares had previously come under pressure from factors including Meta’s computing rental plan and a sharp drop in SK Hynix, but the latest rebound suggests investors are reassessing AI hardware demand.
Even so, risk assets are not getting a clean backdrop. Brent crude rose above $91 as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate. The U.S. has struck Iranian targets for an 11th straight night, while Red Sea shipping also faces threats from Houthi forces. Higher oil prices have brought inflation concerns back into focus.
Treasury yields have moved higher as well. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 4.64%, breaking above the 4.60% level, while the 30-year Treasury inflation-protected security yield climbed to 2.95%, its highest level since 2008. RBC rates strategist Izaac Brook said rising energy prices are the main reason yields are moving up. Christopher Hodge, chief U.S. economist at Natixis, said the Federal Reserve should pay more attention to the energy shock that has already occurred.
BIT data showed strong moves in crypto-linked U.S. stocks. Coinbase rose about 9.6%, Robinhood gained 7.11%, and Strategy added 4.22%. The report linked the move mainly to progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act, which the market sees as a step toward clearer crypto regulation. Circle is set to report earnings on Aug. 5, with investors expected to focus on USDC scale and reserve income.
Mining shares also moved up. American Bitcoin gained 12.13%, Cipher Digital rose 11.44%, Hut 8 added 7.98%, and Bitdeer climbed 9.76%, helped by Bitcoin’s rebound and by the continuing narrative around shifting into AI computing infrastructure.
South Korean chip stocks recover, while yen risk stays in view
Asian markets broadly followed the repair trade in U.S. technology stocks, though the path remained unstable. The rebound in AI hardware supported tech names in South Korea and Japan, but a weaker yen, higher oil prices and rising U.S. yields kept traders cautious.
South Korea’s KOSPI rose more than 6% at one point in morning trade before closing up 0.74%. The report said one reason was that forced unwinding in leveraged positions may be close to the end, shifting the market from panic selling to a repair phase. JPMorgan strategist Mixo Das said deleveraging in South Korean leveraged ETFs may be about 75% complete.
South Korean semiconductor shares gave back early gains. SK Hynix rose more than 9% in early trade but ended down 0.32%, while Samsung Electronics closed up 0.57%. SK Hynix was reported to be in talks to buy Intel’s Ohio campus and produce memory chips in the U.S., but the follow-up remained unclear, adding to volatility. The South Korean government also held discussions on exchange-rate stability with exporters including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor and Kia, and expects stronger semiconductor exports in the second half to improve foreign-exchange supply and demand.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed down 0.18%. Japan’s exports in June rose 19.3% year on year, imports increased 25.4%, and the trade deficit stood at 406.9 billion yen. A weaker yen helps export companies on translated revenue, but it also raises energy and import costs.
Currency risk remains the larger concern. The yen has fallen to its weakest level since 1986. Sayuri Shirai, a former Bank of Japan policy board member, warned that if the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates, the dollar-yen rate could move toward 165. The market has started to worry about Japanese government intervention in foreign exchange. If that happens, it could force the unwinding of global carry trades and ripple into technology shares and other risk assets.
What markets are watching next
July 22 is being treated by the market as a “technology super day.”
- At 21:00, Samsung will hold its global Galaxy product event, with investors watching whether the new devices include more on-device AI features.
- AMD’s AI event runs from July 22 to July 23. The market wants a clearer roadmap for AI servers and more visibility on customer orders, which could shape whether the hardware rebound broadens.
- Google, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments and ServiceNow are due to report after the close. For Alphabet, the focus is on Google Cloud, advertising and AI capital spending. Strong cloud growth could support the AI hardware chain; high spending with weak returns could weigh on tech stocks. For Tesla, the market is focused on automotive gross margin, energy storage, FSD and Robotaxi.
On July 23, markets will also watch a new round of macro and earnings catalysts.
- At 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its rate decision, followed by a press conference from Christine Lagarde. The market expects no change, but comments on inflation and liquidity withdrawal could move the euro and global bond markets.
- At 20:30, the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims report is due, with expectations around 214,000. A reading well below that level would suggest the labor market remains tight and could make it harder for the Fed to pivot to easing. A higher reading would strengthen the slower-growth trade, support Treasuries and pressure banks and cyclical shares.
- Intel will also report after the close in what the report described as the most important transformation test since the semiconductor bear market. Nokia, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Blackstone, American Airlines, Newmont, Honeywell, SAP, Digital Realty and T-Mobile are also scheduled to report the same day.