Market Recap: BTC Down 5.96%, ETH Slides Over 8.9%
According to Bybit's latest Options Weekly Report covering June 23-29, Bitcoin fell from $64,020 to a weekly low of $58,112 before closing at $60,206, registering a weekly decline of 5.96%. Ethereum underperformed, dropping from $1,728 to a low of $1,512 and ending the week at $1,574, a loss of 8.91%. The sell-off was broad-based, reflecting persistent macro headwinds and fading short-term momentum.
AHR999 Plunges to Historic Extreme of 0.287
The AHR999 bottom-fishing indicator, a widely followed metric for identifying Bitcoin undervaluation, fell to 0.287 during the week—entering historically extreme territory. Typically, readings below 0.45 are considered attractive for long-term accumulation, and a sub-0.3 level has only been seen during the most severe bear markets, such as the November 2022 bottom and the March 2020 COVID crash. This suggests that Bitcoin's current price is significantly disconnected from its fundamental trajectory, potentially offering a rare buying opportunity for patient investors.
Macro Data: Hot PCE Triggers 'Sell the News' Rally
The May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index came in at 4.1% year-over-year (above the 4.0% expected), while core PCE (excluding food and energy) printed at 3.4%—both the hottest readings since autumn 2023. Despite the inflationary surprise, the market had already priced in the outcome, leading to a classic 'sell the news' reversal. Crypto prices initially dipped but quickly rebounded as short-term traders took profits against the widely anticipated data. This reaction indicates that crypto markets are becoming less sensitive to macro shocks in the short term, as many investors are already positioning for a potential pivot in Fed policy later this year.
Technical Analysis: Bullish RSI Divergence on Daily Charts
From a technical standpoint, both Bitcoin and Ethereum daily charts exhibited bullish RSI divergence: prices made lower lows, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to confirm those lows and instead formed higher troughs. This pattern suggests that underlying momentum is improving faster than price action, often a precursor to a trend reversal. Additionally, Ethereum's implied volatility (DVOL) remains substantially higher than Bitcoin's, implying that the options market expects larger short-term swings in ETH. The volatility premium window for ETH remains open, presenting opportunities for option sellers or hedgers.
Key Events and Risk Factors This Week
The macro calendar for this week is packed with potential market-movers. On Tuesday June 30, the JOLTS job openings report will provide insights into labor market tightness. Wednesday July 1 brings the ADP employment change figure, followed by a notable event: Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and potential presidential candidate, will deliver his debut speech at the Bank of Portugal's annual forum. His remarks, especially if hawkish on inflation, could shift rate expectations. Finally, on Thursday July 2, the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show an addition of 113,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. In the current environment where the Fed has signaled further rate hikes may be needed, a strong jobs print would be bearish for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. If Warsh's commentary aligns with a hawkish tone and NFP beats expectations, crypto could face renewed selling pressure.