Market Performance: BTC/ETH Drop, AHR999 at Historic Low
Last week (June 23–29), Bitcoin fell from $64,020 to a weekly low of $58,112, closing at $60,206, a weekly loss of 5.96%. Ethereum dropped from $1,728 to $1,512, closing at $1,574, a weekly decline of 8.91%. Notably, the AHR999 bottom-fishing indicator dropped to 0.287, entering an historically extreme undervalued zone. This level has only been seen during the 2018 bear market bottom and the 2022 deep bear, often signaling extreme fear but also a potential long-term accumulation opportunity.
Macro Data: Hot PCE Triggers 'Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact' Rebound
US May PCE rose 4.1% YoY, and core PCE rose 3.4% YoY, the hottest readings since fall 2023. However, because markets had already priced in higher rates over prior weeks, the actual release sparked a relief rally in risk assets. Crypto markets followed suit, demonstrating a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' pattern. While this suggests short-term negative sentiment has been somewhat exhausted, the macro overhang remains.
Technical Analysis: Daily RSI Bullish Divergence, Implied Volatility Premium Persists
On the technical front, both Bitcoin and Ethereum daily RSI exhibited bullish divergence: prices made lower lows while RSI failed to confirm, indicating momentum recovery is ahead of price action. This is often a precursor to a rebound, though confirmation requires follow-through. In the options market, Ethereum's implied volatility (DVOL) remains significantly higher than Bitcoin's, with the ETH DVOL premium window still open. This suggests options traders are pricing in higher expected volatility for ETH relative to BTC.
Week Ahead: Employment Data and Central Bank Speech in Focus
This week brings a slate of key economic events: JOLTS job openings on June 30, ADP employment data on July 1, along with Warsh's debut speech at the Portuguese Central Bank forum. July 2 sees the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, with a consensus estimate of 113,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Against a backdrop of lingering rate hike expectations, a strong jobs report combined with potentially hawkish comments from Warsh could renew downside pressure on crypto assets. Traders should closely monitor these events for shifts in liquidity expectations and risk appetite.