Market Performance and Key Indicators
According to Bybit's options weekly report covering June 23-29, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from $64,020 to a weekly low of $58,112, closing at $60,206 for a weekly loss of 5.96%. Ethereum (ETH) dropped from $1,728 to $1,512, closing at $1,574, down 8.91% over the week. Of note, the AHR999 bottom-buying indicator plummeted to 0.287, entering the historically extreme undervaluation zone. Historically, such levels have only been seen during severe market panics or major bottom regions.
Macroeconomic Data and Technical Signals
The May PCE inflation data came in: headline PCE at 4.1% YoY, core PCE at 3.4% YoY—the hottest readings since autumn 2023. Since the market had already fully priced in this outcome, the data release triggered a 'sell-the-fact' rebound rather than further declines. On the technical side, both BTC and ETH daily RSI exhibited bullish divergence—prices made new lows while RSI failed to follow—indicating momentum is recovering faster than price. Additionally, ETH's DVOL (implied volatility) remains significantly higher than BTC's, suggesting the implied volatility premium window for ETH options is still open, which investors may exploit for arbitrage strategies.
Key Events This Week and Risk Outlook
The macro calendar is packed: JOLTS job openings on June 30, ADP employment on July 1, Warsh's debut at the Banco de Portugal Forum on the evening of July 1, and the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on July 2 (estimate +113K new jobs, unemployment rate 4.3%). With rate hike expectations persisting, a stronger-than-expected employment report would be negative for risk assets. If Warsh delivers hawkish remarks combined with a strong NFP, crypto assets could face renewed pressure. Investors should closely monitor these events for short-term volatility.