A new research note from Cantor Fitzgerald identifies Robinhood and Coinbase as the primary beneficiaries of the booming prediction market sector. While niche platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain private, the two publicly traded giants are leveraging their large retail user bases and proven trading infrastructure to embed event-based contracts directly into their offerings.
Robinhood's Prediction Hub Becomes Fastest-Growing Revenue Stream
Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets Hub after the 2024 U.S. election cycle and has already seen explosive growth. Users have traded billions of dollars in contracts covering sports, politics, and macroeconomic events. The segment has become one of the company's fastest-growing revenue sources, relying on the same fee-per-trade model used in equities and crypto.
Coinbase Expands via Kalshi Infrastructure
Coinbase is partnering with Kalshi's underlying technology to rapidly scale its own prediction market offerings. Categories now include crypto price movements, global political outcomes, and major sporting events. Cantor Fitzgerald notes that Coinbase's regulated status and crypto-native customer base give it a unique edge in launching institutional-grade prediction products.
Competitive Moat and Regulatory Outlook
The report emphasizes that platforms with large retail audiences and existing trading engines hold a significant advantage in attracting liquidity and user participation. Both Robinhood and Coinbase fit this mold perfectly. Despite regulatory uncertainty in the U.S., Cantor Fitzgerald predicts the prediction market industry will continue to grow, potentially expanding into institutional risk management and macro hedging in the future.