Cantor Fitzgerald believes Bitcoin may be entering the final phase of its current downturn, with the market potentially finding a bottom within the next few months. Rather than focusing on short-term price targets, the firm framed its view around market-cycle timing, noting that new institutional investors have historically returned 12 to 18 months after sharp Bitcoin declines.
Focus shifts from price targets to cycle analysis
The significance of the call lies not only in the outlook itself, but also in who is making it. Cantor Fitzgerald is a major player in US capital markets and a primary dealer in the Treasury market, so its cycle-based reading carries weight beyond crypto-native commentary. The firm did not present a precise near-term Bitcoin target, but suggested that traditional finance is paying closer attention to broader positioning, capital flows, and timing within the cycle.
Two trends were highlighted as especially important. First, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to post net inflows. Second, risk appetite appears to be improving more broadly, particularly in higher-beta areas such as technology, media, and telecommunications.
ETF inflows and IPO momentum in focus
CoinShares data shows that most of this year’s net inflows into crypto investment products have gone to Bitcoin-focused vehicles. At the same time, Nasdaq reported that IPO issuance on its platform reached $129.3 billion in the first half of 2026. Together, these signals suggest that investor appetite for risk is recovering not only in digital assets, but across the wider capital markets.
For market participants, the central question is whether the prolonged downturn is truly approaching its end. Institutional investors, developers, and exchanges are watching closely to see if venture capital activity and IPO filings among blockchain companies begin to accelerate again. That cycle matters for asset managers with exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as well as firms tied to the stablecoin sector.
Regulation and macro volatility remain key risks
Cantor Fitzgerald’s view does not remove the risks hanging over the market. Regulatory uncertainty and broader macroeconomic volatility remain the main downside concerns. On the other hand, stronger ETF infrastructure and a more supportive market structure are seen as the primary factors that could improve sentiment from here.
In the end, the report stops short of making a definitive short-term directional call on Bitcoin. Still, it underscores the growing role of cycle-based analysis from traditional financial institutions in shaping crypto market narratives. As investors monitor spot ETF flows and longer-term capital rotation, commentary from established Wall Street firms is becoming an increasingly important reference point.