Capital Economics said the recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries was driven mainly by a change in market expectations for near-term interest rates, rather than concerns tied to AI-related debt issuance or fiscal pressure. Economist James Reilly said the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is now close to its 2007 high, a move he said reflects higher oil prices and continued strength in the U.S. economy. In his view, those factors explain the rise in yields more than narratives centered on artificial intelligence financing or government budget worries. Reilly also gave a medium-term outlook, saying he expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 4.25% by the end of 2027. The comments were reported by ChainCatcher in a short market update.
Capital Economics said the recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries was mainly driven by a shift in market expectations for near-term interest rates, according to ChainCatcher.
Economist James Reilly said the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is close to its 2007 high. He said the move reflects rising oil prices and a strong U.S. economy, not AI-related debt issuance or fiscal concerns. Reilly said he expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 4.25% by the end of 2027.
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