Key Data Comparison: Gold and Bitcoin ETFs Bleed
According to the latest analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, since April 2026, US gold-related ETFs and bitcoin-related ETFs have experienced cumulative net outflows of approximately $12 billion. In stark contrast, semiconductor ETFs saw net inflows of about $20 billion over the same period, indicating a clear capital shift toward technology growth sectors. This trend reveals a profound transformation in asset allocation preferences among both institutions and retail investors.
Acceleration in Mid-May
The trend intensified further in mid-May. Data shows that outflows from gold and bitcoin ETFs more than tripled, while inflows into semiconductor ETFs doubled. This means investors dramatically reduced exposure to traditional safe-haven assets and crypto assets within just over a month, pivoting instead to semiconductor and AI-related sectors. Market risk appetite has clearly risen, with safe-haven demand declining significantly.
Divergent Price Performance
In terms of price performance, the world's largest gold ETF GLD has fallen approximately 13% since early April, while bitcoin ETF IBIT has dropped about 12% over the same period. In contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH surged about 81% and 60% respectively, forming a stark performance divergence. This divergence is not only reflected in fund flows but also directly in asset prices, further reinforcing the logic of capital rotation from defensive to offensive assets.
Market Implications: Risk-On Shift and New Asset Allocation Direction
Analysts point out that the market is undergoing a significant risk-on shift. Retail capital is flowing out of safe-haven and crypto assets such as gold and bitcoin at an unprecedented pace, accelerating into semiconductor and AI-related sectors. This trend is driven by strong expectations for the commercialization of AI technology and a valuation re-rating of tech stocks. For investors, monitoring ETF fund flow changes can provide key insights into the core drivers of the next market phase.