Cardano holders are sitting on steep paper losses. According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, wallets that have been active over the last 12 months are now showing an average loss of 43%, based on the MVRV ratio, which compares the current market value of ADA with the aggregate acquisition cost of those coins.
Santiment described the current depressed MVRV range as an “opportunity region.” The report said similar setups were seen near the end of 2023 and again in late 2024, periods that were followed by strong price rebounds. MVRV often drifts back toward zero over time, and long stretches in deeply negative territory tend to indicate that panic sellers have already exited, leaving behind holders with a longer time horizon or a higher tolerance for drawdowns.
Binance funding rates show crowded bearish positioning
Derivatives data is painting the same picture. Cardano’s average weekly funding rate on Binance has fallen to its most negative level since June 2023. Funding rates are used to measure the imbalance between long and short positions in perpetual futures. When the rate turns sharply negative, it usually means traders are leaning heavily to the short side and longs are being paid by short sellers.
That kind of one-way positioning can act as a reversal setup. If ADA starts to move higher, short sellers rushing to close positions may add fuel to the rally through a short squeeze. The article notes that the last time both MVRV and funding rates reached similar extremes together was in mid-2023, when ADA traded near $0.25. Over the following 18 months, the token climbed by about 300%.
ADA remains under pressure as macro and network trends lag
The bearish backdrop has not disappeared. ADA is still down 71% since September, according to the report. It linked the weakness to geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and fading expectations for rapid rate cuts, all of which have continued to weigh on global risk markets. At the same time, Cardano network usage and broader ecosystem growth have not met expectations, leaving little fundamental support for a durable revaluation.
With those fundamentals still in question, positioning remains the main focus for traders watching ADA. The article said Cardano was trading around $0.26 on Tuesday, down about 7% over the week, a sign that selling pressure remains in place this month.