Cboe Global Markets has confirmed it is developing a new options-based product with an all-or-nothing payout structure — a move that could pit the exchange directly against prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood and Coinbase.
Same Goal, Different Wrapper
According to an earlier report by The Wall Street Journal, Cboe is in early-stage discussions with brokerages and market makers about how the product would work. A person familiar with the matter told CoinDesk that while details are being finalized, the aim is to use a traditional options wrapper to deliver fixed-return outcomes on yes-or-no event contracts. These instruments — sometimes called binary options or fixed-return contracts — let traders bet on whether a specific event occurs. If it does, the contract pays a fixed cash amount; if not, it settles at zero. That payoff structure mirrors prediction markets, where users wager on everything from central bank moves to election results.
History Revisited, Not Relaunched
The exchange is no stranger to binary-style options. In 2008, it launched binary call options tied to the S&P 500 and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), allowing bets on whether those indexes would close above a certain level. Those products failed to gain traction and were eventually delisted. The new initiative, however, is not a direct relaunch, the source told CoinDesk. Instead, Cboe appears to want to modernize the concept and appeal to a broader range of retail and institutional users, with a focus on better end-user experience — possibly through clearer contract terms or more intuitive market access.
Regulatory Landscape and Competition
If launched, the offering would enter a fast-growing segment of the derivatives market. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated venue, already lists event contracts on macroeconomic outcomes. Polymarket, running on a blockchain, has seen surging volumes during election cycles. Coinbase recently partnered with Kalshi to offer prediction market trading on its platform. Cboe has not yet set a timeline, and it remains unclear which specific events or outcomes the contracts would target.