China Open-Source LLM ARR Estimated at $10B-$15B

News Editor

2026-09-02 01:54:16

A China Open-Source LLM Tracker published by Robonomics author FD on September 1 estimates that Chinese open-source large language models generate total annual recurring revenue of roughly $10 billion to $15 billion. Excluding ByteDance and Seedance, core LLM revenue is estimated at $6 billion to $8 billion. The tracker says growth has not depended on a price war: DeepSeek saw usage rise after raising prices by roughly 3 to 12 times, while Zhipu’s average API price increased 101% as token usage grew more than 40 times within the year. Overseas revenue is estimated at about $2 billion. Zhipu’s MaaS ARR rose from about $250 million in March to $1.6 billion on a monthly annualized basis in August and $2 billion on a weekly annualized basis. MiniMax, Kimi and DeepSeek also posted sharp ARR increases, while ByteDance’s annualized AI revenue was estimated at $4 billion, including about $2 billion from Seedance.

ChainCatcher reported that the China Open-Source LLM Tracker, published by Robonomics author FD on September 1, 2026, estimates total annual recurring revenue from Chinese open-source large language models at roughly $10 billion to $15 billion. Excluding ByteDance and Seedance, core large language model revenue is estimated at $6 billion to $8 billion.

The tracker said the growth did not rely on a price war. DeepSeek raised prices by roughly 3 to 12 times, yet usage continued to increase. Zhipu’s average API price rose 101%, while token usage grew more than 40 times within the year. The best estimate for overseas revenue is about $2 billion.

Zhipu and MiniMax ARR

Zhipu’s MaaS ARR was about $250 million in March 2026. By August, it had reached roughly $1.6 billion on a monthly annualized basis and $2 billion on a weekly annualized basis. Zhipu’s August revenue exceeded its API revenue for the first half of the year. Its API gross margin was 24.6%, while inference costs per token fell 80%.

MiniMax ARR rose from about $100 million in December 2025 to more than $800 million on a weekly annualized basis in August 2026. Business-to-business revenue accounted for about 80% of the total. Kimi ARR increased from roughly $100 million in March to about $300 million by mid-June.

DeepSeek and ByteDance Revenue

DeepSeek generated about $70 million in revenue from January through July 2026, according to the tracker’s estimates. Its latest ARR estimate is about $1.2 billion. ByteDance’s annualized AI revenue was estimated at roughly $4 billion, with Seedance accounting for about $2 billion.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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