Bitcoin could hit its bear-market low between October and December 2026, according to Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer. In a long-term forecast, he projected a bottom range of $42,000 to $44,000, using Strategy's market net asset value (mNAV) and a volatility-decay cycle model.
mNAV Reading Mirrors 2022 Levels
Jiang flagged Strategy's current mNAV of 0.72, a metric comparing the company's share price to the Bitcoin value per share. That reading is close to the 0.7 level recorded on May 11, 2022, when mNAV hit its cycle low. Bitcoin's final bear-market bottom came roughly six months later, at $15,476 on Nov. 21, 2022.
He stressed that an mNAV low does not automatically mark a Bitcoin price low but tends to lead by several months. Based on that pattern, the current 0.72 mNAV could point to a later Bitcoin bottom later in 2026.
Mathematical Model Pinpoints Late October 2026
Beyond mNAV, Jiang applied a bouncing-ball model with decreasing volatility. The model suggests a bear-market bottom around Oct. 31, 2026 near $44,016. He noted the model's timing has historically outperformed its price predictions, so he widened the range to $42,000-$44,000.
Jiang said he recently exited spot holdings and opened short-term bearish positions. He plans to accumulate spot Bitcoin again near the projected bottom zone. He also referenced recent market sentiment developments including the decoupling of STRC (Strategy stock) but did not elaborate.