U.S. memory chip stocks were hit hard again last Friday, extending the pressure on one of the market’s most crowded AI trades. SK Hynix closed down nearly 9%, SanDisk fell nearly 11%, and Micron lost nearly 7%. Intel, which had just reported earnings above market expectations, still dropped more than 7%.
In Odaily’s telling, the move reflected a market that is no longer rewarding AI-linked names simply for spending aggressively. Stocks fall on strong earnings, fall on in-line results, and fall even harder on misses. The article argued that the old “all in AI” script no longer works the way it did before.
From story-driven trades to return-driven scrutiny
According to the article, the logic behind AI chip rallies over the past year had been straightforward. If a company was tied to AI, buying GPUs, building data centers, or expanding HBM capacity, investors tended to reward it. Bigger capital expenditure brought more excitement. Heavier spending brought richer valuations.
Odaily said that phase is fading. The market is shifting from buying the story to demanding numbers. Investors are no longer satisfied with broad statements about large AI investment plans. They are now asking a much sharper question: after hundreds of billions of dollars have been committed, where are the returns?
The piece named Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple as examples of large technology companies putting vast sums into data centers and chip infrastructure. The issue, it said, is whether incremental revenue from AI services can cover rising depreciation, electricity, and leasing costs. Odaily framed that question as a core variable for the next phase of the AI trade.
Those companies are set to report earnings in the near term. The article said their answers could help determine whether chip stocks can climb out of the current slump or keep searching for a lower floor.
Can the $950 billion order change sentiment?
Over the weekend, the market got what Odaily described as a major positive headline. SK Group and Samsung announced that they had secured a $950 billion order in the United States from Nvidia and other technology giants. The order covers memory chips, HBM, and other AI infrastructure components, and the article called it the largest overseas cooperation agreement in the history of South Korea’s semiconductor industry.
That headline raised hopes that a sector under sustained selling pressure could finally stage a rebound. Odaily said Monday’s opening action would offer a direct test of how much pricing power the news really carries.
Still, the report argued that the number needs to be unpacked carefully.
First, much of the $950 billion consists of letters of intent and multi-year framework agreements, with execution spread out through 2030. It is not revenue that can be booked next quarter, and it is not cash already received. In that reading, the direct boost to share prices may be limited.
Second, Odaily said the market has already fully priced in the idea that AI memory remains in short supply. The new order, in its view, turns an already visible trend into a contract rather than introducing a genuinely new upside surprise.
The article argued that markets tend to care more about information that sits outside consensus. If everyone already knows HBM is tight and cloud companies are placing orders aggressively, then announcing another large deal may have less marginal impact on valuations.
Even so, Odaily added that the current extreme positioning and sentiment around chip stocks could still allow the news to provide a short-term lift to related names.
VIX looks calm, but VXN tells a different story
On the surface, the broader market does not yet look panicked. The article put the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, at about 18.57, a level it described as relatively calm and still far from an extreme-fear zone.
But the picture changes when attention shifts to the Nasdaq-focused volatility gauge. Odaily said VXN has climbed to 28.39.
The widening gap between VIX and VXN is important in the article’s framework. It suggests that anxiety is not evenly spread across the market. Concern about the broad index remains limited, while stress around chip stocks, AI-linked names, and richly valued technology shares has become much more pronounced.
In that kind of setup, the report said, short-term swings in technology stocks can grow larger. A disappointing earnings report or a negative macro headline could put more pressure on the sector.
Article points to options as a way to trade a split market
Odaily described the current setup as deeply divided. The long-term case for chip stocks, continued growth in AI demand, still exists. So do the short-term headwinds: valuation resets, earnings pressure, and rising volatility. The article said it is hard to know which side will dominate next.
Against that backdrop, the piece argued that committing to a single direction and holding on stubbornly is the riskiest approach. It presented flexibility in both directions as the more practical choice.
Odaily then noted that options trading on the BIT platform officially went live last week and listed several possible uses:
- Holding shares while buying put options to hedge downside risk;
- Buying calls or puts outright with a smaller premium outlay and a capped maximum loss;
- Buying exposure in both directions ahead of larger moves during earnings season.
The article closed with a risk warning, saying options are high-risk financial products. Pricing can be affected by the underlying asset, volatility, and time to expiry, among other factors, and traders may lose the full premium. Investors should understand the risks fully and make decisions based on their own circumstances.