Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares climbed despite a bearish note from Jefferies, as fresh data revealed USDC commanded 67% of total stablecoin adjusted trading volume in June. According to Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl, the stablecoin market recorded a record $1.78 trillion in adjusted volume, with USDC accounting for $1.21 trillion — more than twice Tether's USDT at $573 billion.
Volume Lead Eases Competition Fears
While USDT led in transaction count with 145 million transfers versus USDC's 57 million, the gap in value processed solidified Circle's narrative. CRCL closed 4% higher at $64 on July 2 and extended gains to $66 in pre-market trading on July 6, shrugging off Jefferies' advice to sell over the launch of rival stablecoin OUSD.
Jefferies warned on July 2 that OUSD could erode Circle's market position. The caution came after CRCL posted its worst single-day drop since March on June 30 when OUSD launched and Circle was removed from several Russell indexes. However, doubts emerged over Open Standard's claim of 140 partners — Samsung and Dunamu both distanced themselves, undermining OUSD's credibility.
Institutional support arrived the same day: ARK Invest disclosed purchases of roughly $17.8 million worth of Circle shares. Despite the volume lead, USDC's market cap slipped slightly from $73.75 billion to $72.87 billion between June 30 and July 6, suggesting some capital rotated after OUSD's debut.
Technical Rebound Hits Key Resistance
Technically, CRCL found support near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at $61.73 on the four-hour chart and recovered from around $62 to nearly $66. However, the stock remains below the Supertrend indicator at $75.66, signaling sellers still control the trend. Reclaiming that level is needed to confirm bullish momentum.
The MACD histogram has almost returned to the zero line after weeks of negative readings, indicating fading selling pressure, but the MACD line stays below the signal line — no bullish crossover yet. If buyers push above Supertrend resistance, next upside targets are Fibonacci retracements at $78.47, $91.61, and $100.84. Losing support near $61.73 would invalidate the recovery.