Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL)—the company behind the USDC stablecoin—has seen its shares more than double over the past month, trading around $120 to $124 per share, with daily gains of 7% to 8% in recent sessions. The rally follows the release of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings that blew past Wall Street expectations, putting the stablecoin economy firmly in the spotlight.
Earnings Beat Fuels Massive Single-Day Jump
On February 25, 2026, Circle reported Q4 2025 revenue and reserve income of $770 million, up 77% year-over-year and surpassing the consensus estimate of $739 million. The vast majority—$733 million—came from interest generated by the reserves backing USDC. Net income from continuing operations reached $133 million, while adjusted EBITDA climbed to $167 million, more than quadruple the prior year. Earnings per share came in at $0.56 basic and $0.43 diluted, versus near-zero levels a year earlier.
The market reacted swiftly, sending shares up 30% to 35% in a single session—the largest daily gain since Circle's IPO in June 2025. The momentum has not faded; the stock has since climbed from around $50 to over $120.
USDC Metrics Show Explosive Growth
Behind the rally lies surging adoption of USDC. By end-2025, USDC circulation reached $75.3 billion, a 72% increase year-over-year, with average circulation doubling. On-chain transaction volume hit approximately $11.9 trillion in Q4 alone, a 247% jump from the prior year. These figures indicate that stablecoins are being used far beyond speculative trading—they are increasingly serving as payment rails, treasury management tools and settlement infrastructure.
Active wallets also grew 59% to 6.8 million, reflecting a broadening user base.
Macro Tailwinds and Business Risks
Circle's revenue model is sensitive to interest rates. The company earns most of its income from Treasury bills and cash reserves backing USDC. Higher-for-longer rates have boosted that income stream. However, if rates fall sharply, reserve income will shrink. Additionally, Circle shares a significant portion—about 56%—of reserve income with partner Coinbase under their existing agreement.
Competition remains a challenge. Tether's USDT still dominates with roughly three-quarters of the stablecoin market. Meanwhile, banks and fintech firms are launching their own dollar-pegged tokens as regulatory clarity improves. The stock's valuation has also sparked debate—some analysts warn that a 100% leap in a month may be unsustainable.
Wall Street Rethinks Stablecoins
Several investment banks have raised their price targets on Circle, citing stablecoin growth, tokenization trends and broader blockchain adoption. A short squeeze likely amplified the move as bearish traders rushed to cover positions. Despite risks, stablecoins are no longer a crypto curiosity—they are becoming integral to the plumbing of the global financial system, and Circle is positioned as a key player selling the pipes.