Citi has lowered its crypto price targets for the second time this year. In its latest report, the bank cut its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000, a reduction of about 27%. Its Ethereum target was also revised down, from $3,175 to $2,240, or roughly 29%.
The bank cited weaker investor interest, a shift in Bitcoin ETF flows from positive to negative, slow progress on U.S. digital asset legislation, and capital rotation into AI-related assets. Citi’s view is that these factors have all weighed on the near-term outlook for crypto markets.
Citi drops its ETF inflow assumption to zero
The most important change in the report was not only the price targets, but the assumptions behind them. Citi cut its forecast for net ETF inflows over the next 12 months from $10 billion to zero. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had previously been treated as one of the main channels for institutional demand. Removing that assumption signals a much weaker view on fresh capital entering the market.
Citi also pointed to about $3.3 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs so far this year. That reversal in fund flows was presented as a key reason for the lower targets on both Bitcoin and Ethereum. In Citi’s framework, fading institutional demand has materially changed the expected upside.
Legislative delays and selling pressure remain in focus
Beyond ETF flows, Citi highlighted two other pressure points. One is the lack of progress in U.S. digital asset legislation, leaving the regulatory outlook unclear. The other is concern that digital asset treasury companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin could face pressure to sell. The report also noted that TD Cowen cut its target on Strategy in the same week, pointing to softer sentiment across Wall Street toward crypto-linked names.
At the time cited in the report, Bitcoin was trading around $58,800, its weakest level since September 2024, and nearly half below its $126,000 record high from last October. Even so, Citi’s $82,000 target still sits about 40% above the current price, suggesting the bank is lowering expectations for momentum and institutional buying rather than calling for a fully bearish collapse.