Citi analyst Alex Saunders slashed the 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether, citing a collapse in ETF demand and fading regulatory hopes. Bitcoin target dropped from $112,000 to $82,000, ether from $3,175 to $2,240. BTC traded at $58,400 and ETH at $1,570 at press time.
Bitcoin Target Slashed to $82K, Ether to $2,240
The downgrade stems from the assumption of zero net ETF inflows over the next 12 months, abandoning earlier expectations that regulatory progress would drive institutional buying. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $4 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, after a 13-day redemption streak flipped year-to-date flows negative. Saunders wrote: "The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero."
Regulatory Hopes Fade, Corporate Selling Looms
Citi had previously counted on U.S. digital asset market structure legislation to spur adoption, but now sees the timeline slipping. Concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) companies could become net sellers also weighed on sentiment. Recent corporate actions by Strategy, though modest in BTC sales, amplified those fears.
Technical Weakness and Capital Rotation
Both bitcoin and ether remain below their 200-day moving averages, a bearish technical signal. Speculative capital has rotated toward AI-related investments, sapping liquidity from crypto. While Citi's equity strategists have turned more constructive on U.S. stocks, the report found that positive macro factors are insufficient to offset weakening flows.
Three Scenarios: From $53K to $108K
In the base case (flat ETF flows), Citi sees BTC at $82,000 and ETH at $2,240. In a bull case with stronger retail and institutional adoption, BTC reaches $108,000 and ETH $2,932. The bear case, incorporating recessionary macro and continued ETF outflows, puts BTC at $53,000 and ETH at $1,094.