Citibank cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000 on July 1, a roughly 27% reduction. The bank argued that Bitcoin's growing correlation with traditional financial markets and global liquidity is amplifying downside moves, contrary to expectations that closer integration would dampen volatility.
After Hitting $126K in October 2025, Analysts Are Splitting Sharply
Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025, driven by spot ETF flows, post-halving dynamics, and revived institutional interest. But subsequent declines have fractured analyst views.
Standard Chartered and like-minded firms believe the market may have already found its cyclical low last month, citing structural demand from ETFs, corporate Bitcoin holdings, and improved long-term capital inflows. In contrast, Galaxy Research noted in June that traditional cycle indicators haven't fully reset, leaving room for further declines. The firm pegs a support zone at $40,000 to $46,000.
Macro and Liquidity Take the Wheel; Hilbert Capital Eyes $52K–$56K
Russell Thomson, investment director at Hilbert Capital, sees Bitcoin still in a downtrend and expects it to test lower lows before a true bottom forms. Global macro conditions and liquidity, he argues, are shaping the market far more than crypto-specific signals. Thomson's next target is $56,000 to $52,000, with a potential deeper slide to $40,000–$45,000 — levels seen during early 2024 consolidation. He projects a bottom around October 2026, though Fed rate cuts or passage of the CLARITY Act could accelerate that timeline.
Citibank's report echoed this view, stating Bitcoin is becoming "more like a macro asset" and less a safe haven.
From Bottom-Hunting to Capital Competition: Bitwise and Bitunix Weigh In
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, takes a cautiously constructive stance. He points to sentiment levels as low as those after the FTX collapse — a typical sign of seller exhaustion. Yet he stresses no single indicator can pinpoint the exact cycle low, and the absolute bottom remains unconfirmed.
Dean Chen, analyst at Bitunix, frames the current decline as a story of global capital competition rather than crypto internal dynamics. While the 2024 spot ETF approval cemented institutional demand, Bitcoin now competes for capital with AI investments and equities — the dominant market themes. Chen notes that derivatives markets play a growing role in Bitcoin price formation, with funding rates and open interest data driving short-term volatility. He expects a structurally extended bottom rather than a sharp V-shaped reversal.
Overall, institutional targets range from $82K to as low as $40K, signaling the basing process could be prolonged.