Citrini has repeatedly appeared at the intersection of traditional finance and crypto markets this year. In February, the research firm published The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, a report that intensified a sell-off in U.S. software stocks and added to anxiety around job losses in Silicon Valley. In April, a Citrini analyst known as Analyst#3 traveled to the Strait of Hormuz and wrote a field report that presented first-hand observations from a key chokepoint in the U.S.-Iran conflict. More recently, Citrini semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately highlighted the importance of copper foil in the AI and semiconductor industries, helping drive a new wave of investment interest.
Behind the firm is James van Geelen, a founder whose background does not follow the usual finance track. He holds dual degrees in biology and psychology from UCLA, worked as an emergency medical technician and healthcare provider, founded a medical company, and later entered the investment world. He is now referred to by some as a “god of investment research.” Odaily’s profile focuses on Geelen’s cross-disciplinary path, Citrini’s research style, and the way the firm entered the crypto market’s field of view.
From Cerebras price discovery to the RWA trade
For many in crypto, Citrini first became a more visible name around the time of Cerebras (CBRS) going public in May. Ahead of the listing, Citrini posted that fund managers were using Trade.xyz, a platform in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, for early price discovery. The post was later reposted and confirmed by Shokun, the founder of Trade.xyz.
As an account that had already published The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, Citrini’s influence in traditional finance was clear. Its public endorsement of the Hyperliquid ecosystem and Trade.xyz’s role in pre-market U.S. stock pricing also brought more attention to crypto-based RWA platforms, U.S. stock pre-market contract platforms, and on-chain U.S. equity trading platforms. In that sense, Citrini helped push this year’s “U.S. stock RWA asset boom” further into public discussion.
Seen from this angle, Citrini has acted as a kind of signal to traditional finance: crypto players that were once treated as marginal are now looking directly at the large market long dominated by conventional financial institutions. The person behind this research machine, Geelen, has built much of his approach around “second-order thinking” and long-termism.
James van Geelen’s unconventional route
Geelen, now 33, did not begin with a career directly connected to AI. Public information shows that he graduated from UCLA with degrees in biology and psychology. He also worked in downtown Los Angeles as an emergency medical technician and healthcare provider. That combination of elite education and emergency medical work shaped a personality focused on efficiency and planning. As he once put it, “If you don’t have a plan, you’re going to have a bad time.” He has also described himself as a “genius musician,” although he does not have major works to point to.
Under his original plan, Geelen would have become a doctor. Instead, he moved into entrepreneurship. He first founded a healthcare company and sold it to a private equity fund, allowing him to step outside the conventional “elite school, employment, professional manager” path. He later founded the firm that became Citrini. Another detail, mentioned by Geelen himself on the Odd Lots podcast in 2023, is that he also co-founded one of the earliest medical cannabis dispensaries in Connecticut. These experiences make clear that he was not the rigid, rule-following doctor archetype some might imagine.
In 2018, after securing a certain amount of starting capital, Geelen began his personal investment career under the name Citrinitas Capital. He later captured early opportunities in AI, including Nvidia, and in GLP-1 weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy. In December 2025, according to PitchBook information cited in the source article, Citrini completed a seed round of about $5.05 million. The company had only around 10 employees and remained privately held.
The 2028 report and the Strait of Hormuz fieldwork
In February this year, Geelen and Alap Shah, who came from the traditional finance world, co-authored The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis. Although they repeatedly stressed that the report was only a “thought experiment” and a scenario exercise rather than a predictive analysis, its discussion of mass white-collar unemployment, lower consumer spending and economic contraction, described as “Ghost GDP,” still sparked concern in capital markets. Delivery, payments and software stocks fell sharply.
IBM’s share price recorded its largest one-day decline of 2025 on February 23. American Express and Blackstone both fell more than 8%. The overall software stock sector declined nearly 5%. DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One and Apollo Global Management Inc. each saw their shares fall by 3% at one point. Several U.S. equity sectors were pulled into the sell-off, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one stage dropped more than 800 points. Alap Shah later stated publicly that his investment stance was “short the disruption, long the disruptor”: shorting companies he believed would be disrupted by AI while holding semiconductor technology stocks that would benefit from AI.
The report caused hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. market value to evaporate in a short period and drew follow-up coverage from overseas media including Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal. On April 6, two months later, Citrini’s Analyst#3 traveled to the Strait of Hormuz, a key point in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and published on-the-ground observations. The report described the operating model of Iran’s “toll station” in the strait and presented several conclusions that ran counter to common assumptions.
According to the report, shipping volume through the strait would gradually rise regardless of how the situation evolved, and Iran did not want to close the Strait of Hormuz. It also described the passage order as unexpectedly standardized. Even if ground operations began, shipping volume would continue to increase. The conflict, in Citrini’s framing, was not simply a bilateral confrontation, but a multi-party game and a reorganization of the regional structure. Geographical disputes within great-power competition are also within Citrini’s research range.
Alchemy, second-order thinking and research production
When asked why the company was named “citrinitas,” Geelen explained that the inspiration came from George Soros’s The Alchemy of Finance. Citrinitas is a stage in alchemy. During this transitional stage, lead begins turning into gold, but has not yet fully become gold. Geelen’s preferred moment is exactly this point: seeing the birth of “gold” before others notice the change in the “lead.”
Citrini’s investment style is tied to Geelen’s cross-disciplinary experience and multiple labels. Based on its past content and public information, the firm focuses on long-term “supertrends,” including AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics and modern warfare. It also aims to provide actionable “basket” investment references and tactical macro trading ideas. Its judgments lean toward long-term structural change rather than short-term trading.
On Citrini’s Substack profile, the firm emphasizes practical application, saying readers will no longer need to ask, “What is the trade?” The line reflects the firm’s focus on turning research into executable frameworks rather than stopping at broad commentary.
Citrini also frequently uses scenario assumptions to help readers understand second- and third-order effects. Geelen has said: “Don’t always think about what you think will happen. You should think about the things that must happen. How will the market’s reaction change reality? What secondary effects will there be? What are the obstacles that allow a trend to continue? And where will capital flow to overcome those obstacles?”
Past examples in the source article include Geelen buying overnight financing rate call options during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023, a trade that produced nearly 50 times return. In December last year, before the United States launched military action in Venezuela, he also shared views on investment opportunities in Venezuelan sovereign bonds.
A founder-led firm with independent analysts
Since the start of this year, Citrini has added several independent analysts, including macro analyst Nick Reece, Korean semiconductor industry analyst @jukan05, and AI chip industry analyst @zephyr_z9. These additions have helped fill gaps in industrial details, technical processes and changes in industry direction.
The firm still operates under a production model driven by its founder and supported by an anonymous elite team. Its scope now spans AI, U.S. software stocks, semiconductors, geopolitics and the crypto market’s RWA narrative. The same research brand that shook U.S. equities with a thought experiment has also played a role in bringing Hyperliquid, Trade.xyz and on-chain U.S. stock-related platforms into broader discussion.