Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said he has lowered the probability that the CLARITY Act will complete the legislative process in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% previously. Thorn said the bill’s combined text was formally released on Wednesday and runs 616 pages with 104 provisions, but the current vote count still falls well short of what is needed in the Senate. On the Republican side, senators Hawley and Paul are expected to vote no, while McConnell has not voted since being hospitalized in June, leaving what Thorn described as roughly 50 reliable votes. That remains below the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster. On the Democratic side, seven senators who had previously taken part in negotiations said in a joint statement that the current text has shortcomings, with particular objections to an ethics provision enforced only by the Justice Department and to a 2029 sunset clause. Elizabeth Warren said the bill should be rejected. Thorn also argued that the practical deadline is July 30 rather than the Senate’s official Aug. 7 recess date because the procedural process itself takes several days.
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said he has cut the probability of the CLARITY Act completing the legislative process in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% previously.
Thorn said the bill’s combined text was formally released on Wednesday. The document spans 616 pages and contains 104 provisions, but he said the vote gap remains significant.
Senate support still short of the required threshold
According to Thorn, Republicans are not fully aligned behind the bill. Senators Hawley and Paul are expected to vote against it, while McConnell has not cast a vote since being hospitalized in June. That leaves about 50 reliable votes, still below the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster.
Among Democrats, seven senators who had previously participated in negotiations said in a joint statement that the current text has shortcomings. Their objections focused in particular on an ethics provision that would be enforced only by the Department of Justice and on a sunset clause set for 2029. Elizabeth Warren went further, saying the bill should be rejected.
Thorn says the real legislative window closes earlier
Thorn argued that the practical deadline for moving the legislation is Wednesday, July 30, not the Senate’s officially announced Aug. 7 recess date, because the procedural process itself takes several days.
He said that if the Senate does not pass the bill before recess, the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 would shrink sharply.
As of publication, Polymarket showed a 38% probability for a market on whether the CLARITY Act would be signed into law this year.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
