Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Research, has downgraded his estimate for the U.S. CLARITY Act's enactment in 2026 from 75% to 60%. In his latest analysis, Thorn stressed that the revision reflects growing pressure from the Senate calendar rather than any changes to the bill itself. Floor scheduling, unresolved negotiations, and competing legislative priorities have significantly narrowed the available window for action.
Timeline Squeeze: FISA Reform and Anti-Weaponization Fund Compete for Floor Time
Thorn noted that the CLARITY Act cleared committee with a 15-9 bipartisan vote and reached the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. However, the remaining procedural steps require precious floor time before the August recess. Lawmakers are likely to shift focus to the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. That procedural vote failed 47-52, adding further strain to the Senate agenda. Additionally, the previous week was consumed by debate over the administration’s anti-weaponization fund. Together, these issues have reduced the number of productive legislative days.
Partisan Stalemate: Ethics and Illicit Finance Provisions Remain Unresolved
As the calendar tightens, Thorn said negotiations around key provisions have shown little visible progress. Ethics requirements supported by Senate Democrats remain unresolved, and illicit finance provisions continue to attract discussion without a public compromise. Thorn described both issues as solvable but noted no final agreement has been reached. He argued that Senate leadership may hesitate to dedicate floor time without confidence that enough Democratic votes are secured.
Upside Potential: Early-July Vote or Text Consolidation Could Improve Odds
Thorn said the odds could move higher if leadership commits to a floor vote during early or mid-July. Public signs that ethics and illicit finance questions have been resolved would also improve the outlook. He added that combining the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee texts into one package would provide another positive signal. Thorn maintained that the bill remains more likely than not to pass, but timing has become the central challenge.