Just 28 days remain. The CLARITY Act (H.R.3633) will likely die for 2026 if the Senate Banking Committee fails to hold a markup hearing before Memorial Day on May 25. Polymarket betting odds have crashed from a peak of 70% to 38-50%, reflecting deep market pessimism. Industry insiders concede: the legislative window is closing fast.
Gantlet of Five Hurdles, First Not Yet Begun
H.R.3633 sailed through the House in July 2025 with a bipartisan 294-134 vote, setting a record for crypto legislation. But the bill has stalled in the Senate for the entire month of April, with no public hearings or scheduled events. The choke point is the Senate Banking Committee's markup — the minimal step needed to advance. CLARITY still requires five more steps: committee markup, full Senate vote (needing 60 votes to overcome filibuster), reconciliation with the Agriculture Committee version, final reconciliation with the House version, and presidential signature. The first step hasn't even started, and only four weeks are left.
Double Pressure: Lawmakers and Industry
Ohio Republican Senator Bernie Moreno issued an ultimatum on April 22, demanding CLARITY pass by the end of May — a July passage is still possible if the committee acts in May, otherwise a deadlock. The industry responded with a joint letter from more than 100 crypto companies last week, directly pressuring the Senate Banking Committee to schedule a markup. The urgency is heightened by two other priorities before Memorial Day: the House DHS appropriations bill and the Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination vote. Crypto legislation must squeeze into the gaps.
Optimistic Signals vs. Market Reality
House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill expressed optimism recently, noting that major disputes around stablecoins and DeFi sales practices have been resolved in the House version and that the Senate should find consensus. But Polymarket tells a different story: odds have dropped from 70% to 38-50% — nearly halved. Analysts put the chance of passage in 2026 at 50-50 or lower. The core dispute revolves around stablecoin yield regulation — how to define interest attributes remains a divide between banking regulators and crypto-natives. A compromise drafted in March by Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks, with White House involvement, failed to reach formal markup. Additional undisclosed sticking points remain unresolved.
Window Closing, Uncertainty Ahead
Without CLARITY, the crypto industry can survive but in a fragile state. Current SEC friendliness relies on staff statements, non-binding guidance, and administrative discretion — not law. A future administration could reverse everything with one executive order. Gnosis founder also warned that if the final version leans too much toward Wall Street, legislation could become "co-optation." For now, both supporters and skeptics wait for the same thing: the Senate Banking Committee markup schedule. Until that step moves, the remaining four hurdles are effectively frozen.
Days to Memorial Day: 28.