Legislative Countdown: Only 20 Days Left, Bipartisan Vote Can't Mask Time Crunch
According to a recent report by investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. CLARITY Act, despite passing the Senate Banking Committee by a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, still faces major legislative obstacles in the full Senate. With only about 20 legislative days remaining before the August congressional recess, the Senate must complete bill consolidation, procedural votes, coordination with the House version, and submission to the president for signature—an extremely tight timeline. Jefferies believes this compressed window could exacerbate short-term volatility in crypto markets.
Market Sentiment Cooling: Polymarket Probability Drops from 70% to 48%, Concept Stocks Under Pressure
Data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has fallen sharply from 70% in mid-May to 48%, reflecting growing pessimism about the legislative process. Jefferies notes in the report that the bill's progression will continue to affect crypto-related stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH), as well as select crypto assets. Should the bill pass, it would establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset managers, and exchanges to accelerate tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, while boosting more crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure IPOs. Conversely, if legislation is delayed, regulatory uncertainty would be prolonged, potentially causing traditional financial institutions to slow their blockchain initiatives.
Long-Term Perspective: Circle's Real Challenge Is Competition, Not Regulation
Jefferies also points out that over the long term, stablecoin issuer Circle faces a greater challenge from competition by banks, fintechs, and payment companies than from regulatory changes. This insight urges investors to focus on industry fundamentals rather than single policy factors. The report expects legislative developments in the coming weeks to remain a key variable in crypto market sentiment.