According to Odaily, Polymarket contract data shows the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by Dec. 31 is now 21%. As of Aug. 9, trading volume for the related prediction contracts has exceeded $5.5 million. Meanwhile, Galaxy Research, for its part, previously downgraded its expectation for the bill's passage in 2026 to 30% from 50%. In the U.S. Senate, a cloture motion was submitted on Aug. 8 to move the legislation forward, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators are set to return on Sept. 14, and under parliamentary procedure the first cloture vote would take place on Sept. 15. The CLARITY Act is designed to split regulatory authority over digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Senate talks still involve three unresolved issues: ethics enforcement, illicit finance provisions, and stablecoin yields. Passage over a filibuster requires 60 votes.
Polymarket odds show the CLARITY Act has just a 21% chance of becoming law by Dec. 31, a figure reflected in more than $5.5 million in trading volume on related contracts as of Aug. 9.
Senate path grows narrower
Galaxy Research has trimmed its estimate for a 2026 passage to 30%, down from 50%. On Aug. 8, the U.S. Senate filed a cloture motion on the bill, though no full floor vote has followed. Senators return from recess on Sept. 14, with the first cloture vote expected Sept. 15 under chamber rules.
What the bill does and what's still open
The CLARITY Act would divide regulatory authority over digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC. But three issues remain unresolved in Senate negotiations: ethics enforcement, illicit-finance provisions, and stablecoin yield. Any successful filibuster override needs 60 votes.
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