CoinMarketCap’s latest Daily Market Pulse said crypto traders are adding leverage ahead of a U.S. Senate procedural vote on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, instead of cutting risk.
"Open interest in crypto markets rose 12% this week while prices fell nearly 3%. Traders did not step away before the Fed and the Senate vote — they added leverage into both events. Funding rates sitting at the 41st percentile over the last 90 days tell us this is positioning, not crowding," said Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap.
Liu also said, "Our altcoin season index is 39, down from 50 a month ago. Historically, that describes a Bitcoin-led market, not an altcoin market. What is actually happening is narrow speculation: a few micro-cap tokens are posting triple-digit gains while capital remains concentrated in Bitcoin, which accounts for 58.84% of market cap."
On cross-market behavior, she added, "Bitcoin’s short-window correlation with the Nasdaq has jumped to 0.81, while the 30-day reading is 0.11. That is a classic sign of an asset that has stopped trading its own story and started trading the Fed."
CMC says market positioning does not reflect a defensive stance before the CLARITY vote
CoinMarketCap described the cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act as the biggest legislative test for the crypto industry in the United States, with the Senate vote set for Tuesday.
Its read is based on positioning data rather than market commentary. Funding rates are at the 41st percentile over the past 90 days, Bitcoin liquidations are at the 28th percentile, and open interest is up 12.07% this week. In CMC’s view, that points to a market increasing exposure ahead of a binary event rather than hedging it.
The firm said crypto markets have treated regulatory uncertainty as a base case for so long that the outcome of this vote may matter less for positioning than the Federal Reserve decision due 24 hours later.
The ETF rotation narrative is real, CMC says, but much of the Bitcoin outflow came from one fund
One of the week’s most discussed themes was whether institutions were rotating from Bitcoin products into Ethereum products. CMC noted that the most-viewed ETF post in its KOL sample reached 5,838 views, and the idea circulated widely as evidence of a "handoff in demand."
CMC said that interpretation overstates what happened on the Bitcoin side. In its Bitcoin deep-dive data, the reported $288.1 million in net ETF outflows over five trading days can be broken down into -$234.2 million from ARKB alone, while IBIT recorded $64.9 million in net inflows over the same period.
That means roughly four-fifths of the supposed market-wide outflow came from the books of a single issuer. At the same time, CMC’s ETF assets-under-management series showed Bitcoin products at $100.8 billion, up from $99.58 billion a week earlier and $78.78 billion a month earlier. Ethereum products stood at $14.67 billion, above $13.76 billion a month earlier. CMC’s conclusion is that assets in both product groups are still rising, so the move looks more like a concentrated redemption event than an institutional verdict on the sector.
Micro-cap speculation has returned, but CMC says that is not an altcoin season
CMC said its community leaderboard is often where this kind of move appears first. Alongside Lisk, which rose 308% over 24 hours, the list included EMBER at +134%, ALL at +74%, ZCAT at +51%, TripleT at +44%, FLOCK at +33%, and POWR at +33%.
Its KOL sample also picked up large single-wallet positioning in small-cap tokens. A STONK buy drew 1,211 views, while a profit-taking post on a PONS/CASHCAT short position reached 1,244 views. The largest single-asset accumulation item in the sample was a whale adding 1,075.6 BTC at an average price of $79,412.
Still, CMC said calling this an altcoin season would mislead readers. Its altcoin season index is 39 and still moving lower, while Bitcoin dominance is rising. What the market is seeing, according to the report, is a narrow, high-turnover bid in very small-cap assets rather than a broad move across the altcoin complex.
CMC cited Lisk as an example, saying its 24-hour turnover was equal to 141% of its full market capitalization. Historically, the firm said, that mix looks more like late-cycle speculation searching for beta in the few places still moving, not a broad recovery in risk appetite.
Narrative screen shows Ethereum ecosystem is the largest theme, while Layer 2 and DePIN are moving faster
CMC’s narrative screen added a second layer to the market picture. The top narrative by size is the Ethereum ecosystem, with a total value of $492.85 billion.
By 24-hour volume-weighted relative performance, however, Layer 2 outperformed the broader market by 281.78%, while DePIN outperformed by 251.56%. Their base sizes are much smaller, at $8.86 billion and $18.59 billion, respectively.
"The narratives outperforming right now — Layer 2 and DePIN — are worth $8.86 billion and $18.59 billion, respectively. The Ethereum ecosystem is worth $492.85 billion. When the leading sectors are this small relative to the entire market, the metric to watch is breadth, not percentage gains," Liu said.
Events on CMC’s watchlist this week
- Sept. 15, 17:00 UTC: U.S. 20-year Treasury auction.
- Sept. 15, 18:15 UTC: Senate cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, with 60 votes needed to advance.
- Sept. 16, 18:00 UTC: Federal Reserve rate decision and FOMC economic projections. CMC called this the single biggest catalyst on the week’s calendar.
- Sept. 17, 12:30 UTC: U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims.
- Sept. 17, 17:00 UTC: U.S. 10-year TIPS auction.
- Sept. 18, 13:30 UTC: Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Bowman.
The content was provided by CoinMarketCap. The report said the data reflects descriptive market structure research and does not constitute investment advice.