According to a report cited by ChainCatcher from Jin10, CME FedWatch data shows markets are leaning toward no rate change from the Federal Reserve in July. The tool assigns a 65.3% probability to the Fed keeping rates unchanged that month, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase stands at 34.7%.
Looking ahead to September, the distribution shifts. The probability of rates staying unchanged falls to 22%. At the same time, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase rises to 54.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase reaches 23%. The figures reflect current market pricing shown by the CME FedWatch tool, as cited in the report.
ChainCatcher, citing Jin10, reported that CME FedWatch data shows a 65.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in July. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate increase stands at 34.7%.
By September, the probability of no rate change is 22%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 54.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 23%.
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