According to Jin10, CME FedWatch data shows the Federal Reserve is seen holding rates steady in July with a 58.3% probability, while the odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stand at 41.7%. Looking ahead to September, the probability of no rate change drops to 24.9%. At the same time, the market-implied odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase rise to 51.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 23.9%. The update reflects the current rate path priced into CME FedWatch for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meetings.
According to Jin10, CME FedWatch shows a 58.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in July. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 41.7%.
By September, the probability of no rate change is 24.9%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 23.9%.
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