CME FedWatch data, cited by Jin10, shows the U.S. Federal Reserve is currently seen as more likely to leave rates unchanged in July than to raise them. The probability of no change stands at 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 36.3%.
Looking ahead to September, the distribution shifts. The probability of rates staying unchanged falls to 19.6%. At the same time, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase rises to 55.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase stands at 25.2%.
According to Jin10, CME FedWatch data shows the U.S. Federal Reserve has a 63.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.3%.
By September, the probability of no rate change falls to 19.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase rises to 55.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase stands at 25.2%.
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