ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, reported that the latest CME FedWatch data shows a 98.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is listed at 1.5%. The figures present the probability distribution for the Fed’s rate path, with no rate change accounting for the dominant share in the June reading.
For July, CME FedWatch shows a 91.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase is 7.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.4%. Compared with the June reading, the July data includes three listed outcomes: unchanged rates, a cumulative rate hike, and a cumulative rate cut.
CME FedWatch is commonly used to track probability changes related to Federal Reserve rate decisions. In the figures reported this time, the highest probability for both June and July points to rates remaining unchanged, at 98.5% and 91.3%, respectively.