ChainCatcher reported, citing Jinshi, that the CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June. The same data shows a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut for the June decision. The figures describe the rate-path probabilities displayed by CME FedWatch at the time of the report.
July rate-path probabilities
For July, CME FedWatch shows a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase is listed at 7.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 0%.
The report centers on CME FedWatch probabilities for the Federal Reserve’s June and July rate decisions. A basis point is a common unit used to describe interest-rate changes, and 25 basis points equals 0.25 percentage points. The percentages above correspond only to the data cited in the ChainCatcher report from Jinshi.